GDP Down 3.8%, Worst Since 1982

Global manufacturing recession continued in February. From the Institute for Supply Management, the USA is in the 13th consecutive month of contraction:

Earlier today, we learned that real GDP grew at a 2.5% rate in Q1. While this was much lower than the 3.0% growth rate forecasted by economists, it still seems to be a clear indicator of economic growth. But not everyone sees it that way.

Dean Baker on todays' news the GDP shrank in the 4th quarer of last year:

The economy in the U.S. grew at a faster pace in the first quarter, reflecting the biggest increase in consumer spending in two years as households overcame a drop in incomes by putting less money in the bank.

Inquiring minds investigating the collapse in Europe note Euro-Zone Industrial Production Declines Steeply Industrial production in the 17 countries that use the euro fell sharply in September as weak output across both the core and peripheral economies added to expectations for a poor third quarter gross domestic product print Thursday.

"Unexpected" weakness and downward revisions are hallmarks of the beginnings of recessions. And so it it with durable goods. Economists had forecast a gain, instead there was a 1.6% drop. Moreover July was revised lower as well.

I am amused to report German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall in December German retail sales fell unexpectedly in December, dropping 1.4 percent on a monthly basis in real terms, preliminary data showed on Tuesday. The notoriously volatile indicator was down 0.9 percent on an annual basis. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales to rise 0.9 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on the year.

Dr. Stephen Leeb submits:Earnings season is well underway with two thirds of S&P 500 companies already having reported. It appears that fourth quarter numbers are even better than what most analysts had anticipated, with roughly three quarters of those reporting having exceeded analysts’ expectations.