The Week Ahead: U.S. Retail Sales and the Consumer Confidence Index

In the upcoming week the key focus on the data side will be the US February retail sales figures on Wednesday, which should provide clearer evidence on how the tax increases that took place on January 1 have affected the consumer. In Europe, industrial production and inflation data will be the releases to watch. On the policy side, the focus will be on the BoJ appointments in an otherwise relatively quiet week for G7 central banks.

Matteo Radaelli submits: Our estimates on U.S. economic data due for release during the next week:Chicago PMI (Monday, Jan. 31), ISM manufacturing index (Tuesday, Feb. 2) – Both the Chicago PMI and the ISM manufacturing index rose in December – to 66.8 and 57 respectively – confirming that the short term outlook for the industrial sector remains positive.

WASHINGTON – Retail sales rose in November and jobless claims fell sharply last week, hopeful signs for an economy that appears to have slowed sharply in the fourth quarter. Retail sales rose 0.3%, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in October, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 0.5% last month.

Econ Grapher submits:This week we look at the international trade stats for the US and China, with some interesting signs in the China data. Then we review an interesting short term trend in US consumer credit, before checking the jobs data out of Australia. Finally we review some of the monetary policy decisions out over the past week.1. China International Trade

The week ahead is light on major market moving data releases. From a policy perspective and in light of the recent moves in treasuries, FOMC minutes are likely to be followed by markets. Retail sales in the US are likely to print below consensus both on the headline and on the core metrics. That said, this needs to be seen against the backdrop of first quarter retail consumer spending data surprising to the upside. Producer prices are also likely to come in on the soft side of market expectations. Finally, do not expect large surprises from the U of Michigan consumer confidence.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. trade deficit expanded in November to its widest point in seven months, driven by a surge in imports that outpaced only modest growth in exports. The Commerce Department said Friday that the trade gap widened 15.8 percent to $48.7 billion in November from October. Imports grew 3.8 percent to $231.3 billion, led by gains in shipments of cell phones, including Apple’s new iPhone. Exports increased only 1 percent to $182.6 billion. And exports to Europe fell 1.3 percent, further evidence of the prolonged debt crisis that has gripped the region.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. trade deficit expanded in November to its widest point in seven months, driven by a surge in imports that outpaced only modest growth in exports. The Commerce Department said Friday that the trade gap widened 15.8 percent to $48.7 billion in November from October. Imports grew 3.8 percent to $231.3 billion, led by gains in shipments of cell phones, including Apple’s new iPhone. Exports increased only 1 percent to $182.6 billion. And exports to Europe fell 1.3 percent, further evidence of the prolonged debt crisis that has gripped the region.

WASHINGTON — Americans cut back on spending at retail businesses in October, an indication that some remain cautious about the economic outlook. Superstorm Sandy also depressed car sales and slowed business in the Northeast at the end of the month. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales dropped 0.3 percent after three months of gains. Auto sales fell 1.5 percent, the most in more than a year. Excluding the volatile categories of autos, gas and building materials, sales fell 0.1 percent. That followed a 0.9 percent gain in September for that category.