Super Bowl Winners and Stock Prices: Correlation Without Causation
Ravi Nagarajan submits:
It’s in the bag: Stock prices will be up this year based on the Super Bowl indicator! Stock market legend has it that years in which a team from the original NFL wins the Super Bowl, stock prices will go up. If a team from the original AFL wins, stock prices are likely to fall. Since the Saints are the NFC team this year and the Colts trace their history back to the original NFL, stock prices should rise regardless of the outcome! But before you call up your broker on Monday and buy stocks on heavy margin, consider the following: stock prices are also positively correlated with butter production in Bangladesh. MarketWatch.com has published an article with more details regarding the silliness behind the Super Bowl indicator and various derivative indicators that have been developed over the years. While it is good for a few laughs, we can also draw some important lessons about the nature of statistics.Complete Story »
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