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    Super Bowl Winners and Stock Prices: Correlation Without Causation

    Mon, 02/08/2010 - 03:53 EDT - Seeking Alpha
    • Ravi Nagarajan

    Ravi Nagarajan submits:It’s in the bag: Stock prices will be up this year based on the Super Bowl indicator! Stock market legend has it that years in which a team from the original NFL wins the Super Bowl, stock prices will go up. If a team from the original AFL wins, stock prices are likely to fall. Since the Saints are the NFC team this year and the Colts trace their history back to the original NFL, stock prices should rise regardless of the outcome! But before you call up your broker on Monday and buy stocks on heavy margin, consider the following: stock prices are also positively correlated with butter production in Bangladesh. MarketWatch.com has published an article with more details regarding the silliness behind the Super Bowl indicator and various derivative indicators that have been developed over the years. While it is good for a few laughs, we can also draw some important lessons about the nature of statistics.Complete Story »

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    • Why Investors Should Root For The Giants To Win the Super Bowl

      By Ian Wyatt: I probably don't have to tell you that Super Bowl XLVI is this Sunday. What you may not know, however, is that there's a lot more on the line than Tom Brady's place in NFL history, Eli Manning's status as an elite quarterback, and Madonna's relevance as a pop icon.Even if you're not a football fan, you should care about the game if you're an investor. The Super Bowl is to stocks what the groundhog is to winter - a telling, if logically nonsensical, indicator of what's going to happen next.

    • The Super Bowl Halo Effect

      By Ploutos:With the Super Bowl opponents now decided, we take a whimsical look at the potential market and economic implications. This time of year will bring stories about the predictive power of the Super Bowl Indicator, which points to declines if a successor to the American Football League (now the AFC) wins the championship, and gains if a National Football League (now the NFC) team brings home the Lombardi Trophy.

    • Super Bowl Indicator Says 'Buy!'

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    • Super Bowl, Meet the Groundhog

      Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: What happens when you combine a groundhog with the Super Bowl? Besides, potentially the most bizarre second derivative market indicator out there, it is also a stock market bull's fantasy...at least this year.

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      Working on small details in their last practices, the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints entered Super Bowl weekend trying to keep a normal routine ahead of the biggest game of their lives."Guys are going to be anxious. They haven't been able to play in a couple weeks," Colts coach Jim Caldwell said. "We've done what we would normally do. Our guys have been extremely attentive. They have focused on the little things."We had a great week of work. My goal is to have that same enthusiasm and fun for Sunday's game and I don't think that will take much prodding."

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      Brett Favre's Super Bowl dream ended in pain and heartbreak as the New Orleans Saints beat Minnesota 31-28 in overtime on Sunday to reach the first Super Bowl in their 43-year history.A city still struggling with the devastation of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 has rallied around the Saints, who will face Indianapolis in Super Bowl 44 on February 7 in suburban Miami after the Colts downed the New York Jets 30-17.

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