The Current Pullback: Fourth Largest Since March

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 12:17 EDT - Seeking Alpha

Bill Luby submits: With the futures on a bullish trajectory following President Obama’s State of the Union speech, this seems like an opportune time to reflect on the 67 point (5.9%) fall in the S&P 500 index over the course of the last six days. The table below – which I have been updating periodically over the course of the last five months – establishes the current pullback as the fourth most severe in percentage terms of the 11 pullbacks of 3.0% or more since stocks turned bullish in March 2009. When I first published the pullback table some five months ago, I was surprised by the strong positive feedback I received and by the volume of subsequent requests I had to update the table. It turns out that investors are very much interested in putting each pullback in historical context, specifically in knowing the magnitude and duration of each significant peak to trough move.Complete Story »

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SPX Pullback History: 2009-2011
Bill Luby submits: Since there has been only one significant pullback in stocks so far in 2011, I am taking the mild selling from the last two days as an excuse to update a table of pullbacks that I have been updating periodically since stocks bottomed back in March 2009.The table captures some of the details of the 15 significant (in magnitude and/or duration) pullbacks in the SPX during the last 26 months, with the current pullback – so far at only 1.5% from peak to trough – highlighted in yellow.
4 Years Of SPX Pullbacks In 1 Plot
By Bill Luby: Each time stocks correct, I invariably receive requests from readers to update my SPX pullback summary data, as I did most recently on February 26th in Updated SPX Pullback Summary Table for SPX 1485, after the S&P 500 Index had pulled back 3.0% from a recent high.
S&P 500 Pullback Hits 5.9%: 4th Longest Drawdown Since Start Of March 2009 Bull
By Bill Luby: The S&P 500 index fell as low as 1388 Wednesday, down 86 points or 5.9% from its September 14th high of 1474.
Current S&P Pullback Second Longest Since Bull Market Began
Bill Luby submits: Since the current bull market began back in March 2009, I have periodically been posting a table of the most significant pullbacks in the S&P 500 index. With Wednesday’s drop down to 1305, it has now been one full month (22 trading days) since the SPX peaked at 1370.
S&P 500 Peak to Trough: Current Pullback the Largest Since March '09
Bill Luby submits: Given all the requests I have to update the table below, I guess it is time to come to terms that the SPX Peak to Trough Summary Chart is going to be a regular feature on the blog for the time being.
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Fall 1.4% On Disappointing Friday Nonfarm Payrolls
By Bill Luby: In case you missed it Friday morning, after a nonfarm payrolls report that indicated 120,000 jobs were created in March, approximately 80,000 short of consensus expectations, equity futures fell approximately 1.4%, with the E-mini S&P 500 futures (/ES, shown in graph below) falling to 1372 – a level not seen since March 13th.
How Today's S&P 500 Pullback Stacks Up
Bill Luby submits: A few minutes ago the S&P 500 index made an intraday low of 1151.49. While it remains to be seen whether this line in the sand will hold, it is important to note that the SPX is now 68.35 points below the high water mark of 1219.80 from April 26th. This means the index has corrected 5.6%, which is exactly the average (mean) pullback over the course of the past 14 months
Updated SPX Pullback Summary Table for SPX 1485
By Bill Luby: One of the graphics that I receive many requests for is my SPX pullback summary table. This table starts with the bottom in the SPX in March 2009 and tracks all meaningful peak-to-trough pullbacks from various new highs in the SPX.Last week's new high of SPX 1530.94 and this week's selling have given me an excuse to update that table with current data. I have taken the liberty of assuming that the SPX
A Forecast for the 2013 State of the Union Speech
This is not the moment to give the same economic speech, but to be bold and long-term.
VIX Unspikes as Stocks Rebound
Bill Luby submits: How many days does it take to undo a 30% spike in the VIX? This time around, the VIX retraced 82% of Tuesday’s 30.6% VIX spike in just two days, a bigger reversal than I had anticipated.

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The Current Pullback: Fourth Largest Since March

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