GDP: Revisions and Forecasts

I thought it useful to take a look at a few retrospective macro indicators pertaining the December 2010, three years after the beginning of what some term "the Great Recession".

Or things got a lot worse in 2008Q4 than we thought The 2011Q2 advance release and revised estimates [0] contained many unpleasant surprises (see Jim’s assessment; also [CR1] and [CR2]

So says David Malpass in the WSJ: Data released this week by the Commerce Department waved bright red recession flags—orders for durable goods fell 13.2% in August and inflation-adjusted personal income fell 0.3%. ...

The employment release for May has raised concern, and rightly so, amongst policymakers. Figure 1 shows that nonfarm payroll employment growth has tailed off to 0.6% m/m, and 0.9% on a three month basis (both annualized, in log differences). Other labor indicators from the household survey are slightly more positive.

Some additional observations (see Jim Hamilton's take, as well as others) on the GDP release: (1) the five year revision indicates that GDP was larger than we thought, but it also declined faster in 2009Q1; (2) GDP growth was lower throughout 2008 than earlier estimated; (3) GDP growth in 2008Q2 at 1.5% SAAR would have likely been at zero or negative in the absence of the January 2008 stimulus package in which

That was the title of the Minnesota Public Radio's Midmorning show, with Kerri Miller.

I’m dubious, but I will not “pull a Lazear”. Or a Don Luskin for that matter.

And a slightly older message from the CBO. I’m late to the game [1], but it bears repeating: according to the BEA, government spending (either on goods and services, or more broadly including transfers) is declining as a share of GDP.