By Jeffrey Rosen:
The World Bank issued its latest forecast for U.S. and global growth. Expectations were lowered from the previous report issued in June 2012. Back then, the World Bank expected real global growth of 3.0% in 2013 and 2.4% in the U.S. Now, the World Bank only expects global GDP to increase by 2.4% and the U.S. economy to expand by 1.9%.
It is perhaps the definition of irony that just two hours after the Fed issued a surprising statement that was so bullish on US growth it is as if the past month never happened, as if Williams and Bullard never threatened with QE4 just because the market almost entered a correction, and that made Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius to a express "modest hawkish surprise" that the very same bank, Goldman, whose alum is in charge of the NY Fed (leading to hours of
This month, the World Bank cut its 2013 global growth forecast to 2.4 percent (from 3.0 percent), its 2014 forecast to 3.1 percent (from 3.3 percent), and it introduced its 2015 forecast calling for 3.3 percent growth.
Beijing (AFP) - China's GDP expanded 7.0 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, official data showed Wednesday, beating expectations but with weak investment and trade dragging on the world's second-largest economy.
Moments ago the IMF did what it does better than anyone (with the exception of the Fed): it once again admitted its forecast of world growth had been too optimistic, and as a result in its just released quarterly World Economic Outlook report, it cut its forecast for 2016 global GDP growth from 3.4% to 3.2%, and from 3.6% to 3.5% for 2017. Indicatively, back in July 2014 the IMF was forecasting 4.0% GDP growth in 2016. It is now 20% lower.
Anyone watching financial markets and economics in 2015 would know that this year was marked by a huge rise in volatility. Not the continuous volatility along the established trend, but a 'surprise' volatility concentrated on the tails of distributions of returns and growth numbers. In other words, the worst kind of volatility - the loss and regret aversion type.Here are two charts confirming the said pattern.Starting with asset classes:
Tail ChaseIn the wake of recent economic data, economists at the IMF and Deutsche Bank lowered their growth estimates. IMF Cuts Forecast Again Like a dog running in futile circles hoping to catch its tail, the IMF does the same thing with its perennially over-optimistic assessment of everything from emerging markets to the G7 economies.
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France, Head of the International Macro Division) and Clément Marsilli (Banque de France, Economist at the International Macro Division). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Banque de France.