Why Has The ECRI Stopped Discussing Their Leading Indicators?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 17:47 EDT - Seeking Alpha

Hale Stewart

By Hale Stewart:
By New Deal Democrat
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Lakshman Achuthan made the rounds of the business TV shows last week once again reiterating their call that a recession has already begun or else will begin within the next next month and a half. Curiously missing form those appearances -- as well as his numerous other appearances over the last few months -- was any detailed discussion of what ECRI's leading indicators, especially its long leading indicators, currently forecast. Virtually all of the discussion has been of coincident indicators, and indeed coincident indicators measured on a (lagging) YoY basis rather than their real monthly values.I do not believe the omission of their leading indexes is an accident. More on that below, but first let's look at the latest evidence cited in favor of imminent recession.In all of his appearances Achuthan cited three measures -- real personal income,Complete Story »

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"Wall Street is Little More than Glorified Crack House"; ECRI Sticks with US Recession Call; So Do I; So Does John Hussman, with Odds Above 80%; SF Fed has 50-50 Odds
Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), talks about the U.S. economy and his recession call with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television. ECRI Sticks with US Recession Call
We're Still Waiting For ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan To Retract His Recession Call
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.2 versus the previous week's downwardly revised 129.6 (from 129.7). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below.
ECRI's Imaginary Recession Is Now In Its 7th Month
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week's 126.6 (which is an upward revision from 126.4). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below.
ECRI Recession Call Update: Weekly Leading Index Declines Again
By Doug Short: The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) dropped to 123.1 from a slight downward revision of 124.4 (see the fifth chart below). The WLI growth indicator also slipped, now at 0.1 as reported in Friday's public release of the data through May 18, down from the previous week's 0.4.
According To ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan, We Are 8 Months Into A Recession
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped in the latest public data. It is now at 129.7 versus the previous week's upwardly revised 130.7 (previously 130.6). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. However, the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 8.3, up from last week's 7.2.
Lakshman Achuthan's Imaginary Recession Is Now In Its Seventh Month
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week's 126.6 (which is an upward revision from 126.4). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 5.1, up from last week's 5.0.
ECRI Repeats Recession Call Based on Coincident Indicators, Especially Income
Once again Economic Cycle Research Institute's Lakshman Achuthan repeats his recession call, this time saying within three months. His call is based on coincident indicators, especially income. According to Achuthan, income growth in the last three months is lower than at the start of any of the last 10 recessions.
Why ECRI's Weekly Recession Indicator Has Little Credibility
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.6 versus the previous week's 130.4. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 7.2, up from last week's 6.1. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 10th, and it is at its highest level since April of 2011.
ECRI Says We're In A Recession, But They're Own Indicators Say We're Not
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.4 versus the previous week's 128.1 (which is an downward revision from 128.3). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Virtually Unchanged For 7 Weeks
By Doug Short: The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.6 in its latest reading, data through December 23. The latest public data point is virtually unchanged from last week's -7.7. The index has been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the past seven weeks. Those of us who follow this indicator are nervously awaiting a confirmation or reversal of the trend.

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Why Has The ECRI Stopped Discussing Their Leading Indicators?

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