Why Has The ECRI Stopped Discussing Their Leading Indicators?
By Hale Stewart:
By New Deal Democrat
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Lakshman Achuthan made the rounds of the business TV shows last week once again reiterating their call that a recession has already begun or else will begin within the next next month and a half. Curiously missing form those appearances -- as well as his numerous other appearances over the last few months -- was any detailed discussion of what ECRI's leading indicators, especially its long leading indicators, currently forecast. Virtually all of the discussion has been of coincident indicators, and indeed coincident indicators measured on a (lagging) YoY basis rather than their real monthly values.I do not believe the omission of their leading indexes is an accident. More on that below, but first let's look at the latest evidence cited in favor of imminent recession.In all of his appearances Achuthan cited three measures -- real personal income,Complete Story »