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    Why The Bears May Be Wrong About Chimera, Annaly

    Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:12 EDT - Seeking Alpha
    • AMTG
    • CIM
    • NLY
    • Takeover Analyst

    By Takeover Analyst:mREITS are often criticized for their "cult followings", "blind" trust in management, and earnings uncertainty. While I have articulated in past why investors should be afraid of the dividend cuts at Annaly Capital (NLY) and sister company Chimera Investment (CIM), I think it is important to report both sides of the story.In this article, I will run you though my free cash flow model on Annaly and present the bullish thesis. It is important to bear in mind that Annaly delivered around $2.4B in free cash flow during FY2011 and the company trades at just 6.6x that multiple. Free cash flow may have plummeted from FY2009-2010 levels of $10.8B, but it is still high enough to warrant skepticism about opening a short position.First, let's start with an assumption about the top-line. Annaly finished FY2011 with $3.6B in revenue, which represented a 33.4% gain off of the preceding quarter.Complete Story »

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