What Ptolemy tells us about Germany and Greece

Inquiring minds might be wondering what is the best way forward for Greece. To some extent, the question is akin to asking "would you prefer to lose a one hand and one eye or your left leg?" I have been thinking about the Greece "least bad" question for quite some time, but what brought about this post is a "by the editors" article on Bloomberg.

As Europe careens towards catastrophic certainty, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble admits he more worried about the uncertain rather than the certain.

Inquiring minds will note that the German tour operator Tui is taking measures to protect itself from a Greek exit from the Euro and subsequent currency meltdown.Please consider Tui prepares Greek hoteliers for possible euro exitGerman tour operator Tui has asked hotels in Greece to sign new contracts spelling out how the company will pay its bills if Greece leaves the eurozone and starts using a new currency.

How will the eurozone crisis play out in the next few weeks? With luck, Italy may soon get a credible government of national unity, Spain will obtain a new government in November with a mandate for change, and Greece will do enough to avoid roiling the markets.

Oskar Lafontaine, the German finance minister who launched the euro, has called for a break-up of the single currency to let southern Europe recover, warning that the current course is "leading to disaster". "The economic situation is worsening from month to month, and unemployment has reached a level that puts democratic structures ever more in doubt," he said.

At long last the ISDA has agreed that Greece in in default, and that default constitutes a "credit event". Bloomberg reports Greece Deal Triggers $3B in Default Swaps. Greece’s use of collective action clauses forcing investors to take losses under the nation’s debt restructuring will trigger payouts on $3 billion of default insurance, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said.