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    U.S. Markets: Bears Have the Upper Hand

    Mon, 06/13/2011 - 09:02 EDT - Seeking Alpha
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    The Simple Accountant submits:What an ugly week it was in the financial markets. Everywhere we looked we saw a sea of red. Let's break down the numbers and then look out to the road ahead.
    Week in Review
    Stocks: Trading in U.S. stocks was quite negative. In the midweek update posted on my blog, I looked for a bounce from oversold conditions to bring the SPX into the low 1300s and present an opportunity to sell. On Thursday we got that bounce but it was weak, failed short of the 1300 mark, and brought little volume into the market. Friday followed with selling right from the opening bell into the close and with higher volume. The index fell 1.8% for the week and remains very oversold. All sectors were in the red, with tech losing 3.25%. Our defensive rotation theme held up but even in these sectors we are seeing technical damage onComplete Story »

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    • The Week Ahead: Looking for Some Direction

      The Simple Accountant submits:It was a relatively uneventful week in the financial markets, as US corporate earnings got underway. Even options expiration couldn't generate a great deal of excitement, and the VIX fell back near recent lows. It's one of those periods when bulls see the glass half full and bears see it half empty.

    • No Longer Oversold, Market Tries To Hold The Line

      By The Simple Accountant:After three weeks of nerve wracking volatility, financial markets settled down a bit last week, but hardly anyone seemed ready to sound the "all clear" signal for investors to come out of their shelters. A sense of unease continued to weigh on the markets as we moved into a long holiday weekend in the U.S. Let's review the action and look ahead. Perspective

    • Getting Defensive in Equities, Aggressive in Fixed Income

      The Simple Accountant submits:In last week’s outlook we recommended staying with defensive sectors and fixed income, avoiding commodity related stocks, and waiting for a bounce before selling commodities short. Let’s have a look at how those tactics worked, and then try to anticipate what the next week’s trading might look like. Week in Review

    • Have the Bears Had Their Day?

      The Simple Accountant submits:The risk-off trade appeared to temporarily have run its course last week, as several major indexes and asset classes approached long term support levels. Let's look back at the week's action, and consider what may lie in store for us in the week to come. Week in Review

    • Options Expiration Market Distortions

       

    • U.S. Markets: Still Bullish, But Watch For A Short Term Correction

      By The Simple Accountant:The much anticipated meeting of European leaders in Brussels did not produce a comprehensive resolution to the region’s sovereign debt crisis, but it did enough to set off a vigorous rally in risk assets. Let’s break down the numbers, and cast a look at the road ahead. Perspective

    • The Market Is 'Waiting For Godot'

      By The Simple Accountant:Last week was relatively quiet, with many traders and policy makers on vacation, and a light calendar for economic news. Risk asset markets took advantage of the calms to push ahead on low volume, but perhaps the most remarkable action was in the normally sedate bond market. Let's break down the numbers: Perspective

    • Trading Themes, Nov. 8 - 12: Cautiously Bullish Equities, Commodities; Bearish Long Treasuries

      The Simple Accountant submits:What a week it was for equity and commodity bulls. We got a Dow theory buy signal and new 52 week highs on all the major equity indexes, as well as the CRB. The generally accepted explanation: a stronger than forecast Republican showing in the mid-terms, a new QE progam about 20% larger than consensus expectation, and a positive surprise on private sector job creation. To tie it all together, once again we can look to the US dollar.

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