Unemployment Claims Mystery Solved
Brian Wesbury submits: Despite the large decline since last summer, initial claims for unemployment insurance still remain higher than we would have thought given the general improvement in economic conditions.
A recent report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank provides an interesting explanation why claims have not fallen more. In turn, this suggests claims might not need to fall very much more from current levels in order for non-farm payrolls to meet our bullish expectation of an average increase of 225,000 per month in 2011. As the chart above shows, initial claims remain above where they were prior to the recession. However, data on layoffs and discharges from JOLTS (the Labor Department’s Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) show that layoffs/discharges are now back to pre-recession levels. The reason for the discrepancy, the Fed study says, is that claims are “exaggerating” layoffs. Because those who lose their jobs are staying unemployed for longer than usual, they are also applying for benefits more aggressively than usual. Adjusting for a higher “take-up” rate for benefits, claims would be much lower and more consistent with a higher paceComplete Story »
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