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    Unemployment Claims Mystery Solved

    Thu, 02/10/2011 - 06:48 EDT - Seeking Alpha
    • Brian Wesbury

    Brian Wesbury submits: Despite the large decline since last summer, initial claims for unemployment insurance still remain higher than we would have thought given the general improvement in economic conditions. A recent report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank provides an interesting explanation why claims have not fallen more. In turn, this suggests claims might not need to fall very much more from current levels in order for non-farm payrolls to meet our bullish expectation of an average increase of 225,000 per month in 2011. As the chart above shows, initial claims remain above where they were prior to the recession. However, data on layoffs and discharges from JOLTS (the Labor Department’s Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) show that layoffs/discharges are now back to pre-recession levels. The reason for the discrepancy, the Fed study says, is that claims are “exaggerating” layoffs. Because those who lose their jobs are staying unemployed for longer than usual, they are also applying for benefits more aggressively than usual. Adjusting for a higher “take-up” rate for benefits, claims would be much lower and more consistent with a higher paceComplete Story »

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    Related

    • Jobless claims drop tops data today signalling U.S. recovery gaining traction

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      WASHINGTON – The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid fell last week to nearly its lowest level in 4 1/2 years, a sign that the labour market is healing. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 350,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week’s figure was revised to show 1,000 more applications than previously reported.

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      In the aftermath of last week's decidedly weak unemployment report (pre-spun to appear strong while ignoring the major drop in average weekly hours worked, which would have resulted in a massive drop in payrolls had total demand for labor stayed constant from March), many were looking for some confirmation, or denial, from today's Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) survey which provides the labor breakdown by new job openings, hires, separations, quits and layo

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    • US Unemployment Aid Applications Tick Up to 371K

      WASHINGTON — Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits ticked up slightly last week, the latest sign of slow but consistent gains in the job market. The Labor Department said Thursday that applications rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 371,000, the most in five weeks. The previous week’s total was revised lower. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, increased 6,750 to 365,750, after falling to a four-year low the previous week. A department spokesman says all states reported data and none were estimated.

    • US Unemployment Aid Applications Tick Up to 371K

      WASHINGTON — Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits ticked up slightly last week, the latest sign of slow but consistent gains in the job market. The Labor Department said Thursday that applications rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 371,000, the most in five weeks. The previous week’s total was revised lower. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, increased 6,750 to 365,750, after falling to a four-year low the previous week. A department spokesman says all states reported data and none were estimated.

    • U.S. jobless claims spike to 6-month high

      WASHINGTON — The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbed last week at the fastest pace in six months, a worrisome sign for the economy which has been hit by government austerity. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped by 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 360,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the biggest jump since November and confounded analysts’ expectations for a more modest increase.

    • U.S. jobless claims fall to lowest level in almost 5-1/2 years

      WASHINGTON — The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in nearly 5-1/2 years last week, signalling labor market resilience in the face of fiscal austerity. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, the lowest level since January 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported.

    • Trim Tabs Fearless Forecast: US Payrolls +45,000 Jobs; Analysis of Jobs, Wages, GDP, Weekly Claims, Housing; Forced Lifestyle Changes; Boomer Drag on GDP Trends

      Last month Trim Tabs estimated December payroll growth was 38,000. ADP estimated payroll growth at 325,000. I estimated +78,000. The BLS reported +200,000. For details, please see Nonfarm Payroll +200,000 ; Labor Force Drops Another 50,000 ; Those Not in Labor Force Rises by 194,000 ; Unemployment Rate 8.5% Was this a miss by Trim Tabs? ADP? Me?

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