UK construction PMIs offer recovery hope

In what may be a stunning development, today the market may actually respond to an adverse piece of economic news by going lower. The news, in this case was the February Chicago PMI which tumbled from 56.8 to 52.4, the lowest since December and far below expectations of a 56.5 print - the biggest miss in 11 months.

Investment Directions submits: Bank lending, a closely watched indicator of economic health, is improving in an important area: Commercial and industrial loans. When, coming out of a recession, banks are willing to lend to businesses and businesses are willing to borrow, it’s typically a positive sign.

Irish Services PMI (published by NCB) for February were out today, highlighting some interesting (for a change) shifts in the short-term trends worth discussing.The headline numbers were good, although less strong than those recorded in January. This is not surprising since PMI surveys are biased toward multinationals in some core driving sectors (due to weighting factors attached to sectors and the overall quality, collection and reporting of data biases).

Canadian banks have more loans out to Canadian businesses than ever before thanks to low interest rates and business owners hungry to grow. At the end of November, the banks had $326.7-billion in loans to businesses on their books, up 9% from the same period last year, according to the Bank of Canada. The banks themselves are no doubt pleased, but as an indicator of what to expect from the economy over the next few months the number is even more important, suggesting business owners may be in a hiring mood.

By The Operator:There is important data flow coming from Turkey this week. On Monday we will see the GDP figures for Q2 2011. This is something that needs to be watched closely as several ministers were on the wires last week claiming growth numbers between 7-8%., while market expectations range between 5-9% (main clusters are between the high 6% and low 7% range). Some of the analysts reacted to these numbers by reconsidering expectations.

A quick look at economic data from Markit shows a recovery of sorts in Germany (it will not last) and a contraction in France at the steepest rate in four years. Meanwhile, Italy saw a PMI survey-record decrease in services employment in January. France - Sharpest Contraction in Four Years The Markit France Services PMI®, shows service sector business activity falls at sharpest rate since March 2009. Key points:

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog, Small business is the incubator of employment. As it declines, so too do opportunities for first jobs, second chances and economic independence.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release their April survey on Tuesday, June 14th. Here is a pre-release of the employment results from NFIB: NFIB Jobs Statement: On Main Street, Job Creation is Collapsing“After solid job gains early in the year, progress has slowed to a trickle ... meaningful job creation on Main Street has collapsed....