Two Rebalancing Acts in the Global Economy

David Beckworth submits: Apparently it was the topic de jour at the IMF annual meetings this past weekend. Though framed as a "currency war" by some IMF participants, Martin Wolf explains it is really about two rebalancing acts in the global economy:The first is internal rebalancing – a return to reliance on private demand in advanced countries and retrenchment of the fiscal deficits that opened in the crisis. The second is external rebalancing – greater reliance on net exports by the US and some other advanced countries and on domestic demand by some emerging countries, notably China.As noted by Wolf, it just so happens that both of these rebalancing acts can be addressed by one policy response: aggressive monetary easing by the Fed. That now seems to be happening in the form of QE 2. The Fed, though, is not purposely trying to tackle both rebalancing acts. Rather, it is simply trying to shore up aggregate demand (AD) in the U.S. economy and spur an economic recovery. Doing so would solve the first rebalancing act. Now because the Fed is a monetary superpower, its attempts to shore up U.S. AD will get exported to many other countries in the world, particularly those dollar bloc countries that are pegged in some form to the U.S. dollar and do so in a manner that maintains external competitiveness. It is these same countries that are a key part of the second rebalancing act. They are not pleased by this development as it implies either (1) letting their currencies appreciate against the dollar and losing some external competitiveness or (2) intervening in foreign exchange markets to prevent this appreciation from happening and allowing a large expansion of their domestic money supplies. Either way, the second rebalancing act will occur: dollar block countries' currencies will appreciate or their domestic prices will increase. For the dollar block countries they see a "currency war" and want to fight back. For the Fed it sees weakening AD and is determined to stabilize it. So who will win this global economic showdown at the OK Corral? Martin Wolf says there is no doubt to the eventual outcome of this exchange:The US must win, since it has infinite ammunition: there is no limit to the dollars the Federal Reserve can create. What needs to be discussed is the terms of the world’s surrender: the needed changes in nominal exchange rates and domestic policies around the world.Complete Story »