Dr. Doom got it wrong.
The parade of economists and investors led by Nouriel Roubini predicting Greece’s ejection by now from the eurozone failed to appreciate the resolve of European policy makers to protect their union and the amount of pain Greeks are willing to stomach.
Germany is in recession. It's not a "technical recession", no matter how anyone labels it. And the recession will pick up steam as the year progresses.
Please consider Germany’s economy shrinks most in 3 years as crisis hits eurozone powerhouse.
Yves here. I’m going a bit heavy on Europe tonight because this post, which focuses on the still unresolved debt conundrum in Europe, and the previous one, which examines current and near-term expected conditions, make for instructive reading in combination. The earlier MacroBusinesses piece dutifully records that conditions across Europe have moved (on the whole) an itty bit into the growth category, which given how awful things have been, looks a lot better on a relative basis.
Billionaire financier and legendary speculator George Soros gave a speech Tuesday at the Global Economic Symposium in Kiel, Germany, titled “The Future of Europe.”
In the speech, Soros declared the euro crisis over:
Brussels responded with barely-contained fury Thursday to the IMF’s claim that it had sacrificed Greece to save the euro from debt crisis contagion.
European Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn defended the handling of the debt crisis, accusing critics of dumping “dirty water” on its efforts.
The situation is significantly worse than the mood. But the eurozone crisis is far from over. It’s wishful thinking to expect otherwise
WIESBADEN, Germany — The German economy was hit hard by the eurozone crisis in the final quarter of last year, shrinking more than at any point in nearly three years as traditionally strong exports and investment slowed, the Statistics Office said on Tuesday.
Do Capital Controls Mean Cyprus Has Already Left the Eurozone?, by Tim Duy:
Cyprus is in a struggle to save itself, at least the European definition of
"save itself," and remain a Eurozone member. But will Cyrpus even use the same
euro as the rest of Europe when all is said and done?
True that the recent UK credit downgrade attracted a lot of attention, however as some analysts pointed out, it did not reveal anything new. We all know UK growth is flat-lining and the Government’s austerity measures are failing to translate into deficit reduction. The Eurozone faces an even greater challenge as the economic fortunes of member countries diverge.
Indeed, there are many factors which suggest that a loosening of ties with the Eurozone by British businesses is possible, if not already under way.