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    Swedish Krona Surges on Hawkish Central Bank Comments

    Tue, 03/01/2011 - 08:01 EDT - Seeking Alpha
    • FXS
    • Marc Chandler

    Marc Chandler submits:The Swedish krona surged yesterday. Hawkish central bank comments have offset disappointing retail sales figures and there is some talk of month-end related demand. The euro recorded multi-year lows against the krona on Feb 16 just above SEK8.7 and had recovered to a high near SEK8.8550 yesterday before reversing sharply. The minutes from the Riksbank meeting showed on of the doves (Ekholm) was less dovish and the hawks (Ingves, Oberg, and Wickman-Parak) sounded more hawkish, suggesting the conditions under which a larger than 25 bp rate hike would have to be delivered. Svensson seemed more concerned about methodology and cautioned against switching back and forth between headline and core rates. The krona is easily the strongest currency within the G10 this year. Rising 6.2% against the US dollar. The Norwegian krone is in second with a 4.4% advance. While the euro needs to break the SEK8.70 area, we expected aComplete Story »

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    Related

    • In A Disappointing Europe, Sweden Stands Out

      Michael Shulman submits: With Europe engulfed in a financial crisis that is also becoming a political crisis, Sweden stands out as an exception, and we affirm our expectation of the krona's outperformance in the period ahead. Sweden's economy contracted 5.3% last year but has rebounded smartly this year. Q3 GDP was reportedly earlier today and, at 2.1% quarter-over-quarter, was nearly twice as strong as the consensus forecast, while Q2 figures were revised up a touch.

    • Swedish Krona Soars On Hawkish Riksbank, German Constitutional Court Ruling

      By Forexyard: By Russell Glaser The SEK continues to trade higher after the Riksbank sounded more hawkish than expected and the German Constitutional Court Ruled in favor of the Greek bailout but said its ruling is no blank check for additional bailouts.

    • Ingves Says Not Concerned About Krona Hitting Exports

    • Look for the Swedish Krona to Continue to Recover

      Marc Chandler submits:The Swedish krona has generally trended higher against the euro since the global financial crisis bottomed toward the end of Q1 2009. The euro recorded its multi-year lows against the krona in late September near SEK9.09.

    • G10 Currencies Signal the Coming Bear Market

      Jeff Diercks submits:The PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (symbol "DBV") may not be familiar to a lot of you.

    • Ingves Says No Need to Raise Swedish Rates `Right Now'

    • Riksbank's Wickman-Parak Warns Against Keeping Low Rates

    • Is Another Norwegian Rate Hike in the Cards?

      Marc Chandler submits:Norway was the only major European country to hike rates last year and did so twice in H2 09. The central bank indicated after the December rate hike that if the krone appreciates more than expected, it could delay or limit further rate hikes. The krone has rallied about 3.25% on a trade-weighted basis over the past few weeks, during which time the euro has fallen 4.3% against the NOK.

    • Rising Rates May Impact Dollar's Rise Against the Euro

      Marc Chandler submits:One of the most important developments in recent days has been the sharp backing up of global interest rates, spurred primarily by indications that, contrary to expectations, U.S. fiscal policy is in play again beyond simply preventing the expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. While the rise in U.S. rates has helped keep the dollar supported, we are concerned that two-year German rates have risen even faster than two-year U.S.

    • The Swedish Krona Is Still in Play

      Marc Chandler submits:The Swedish krona remains a market darling. Over the past 3-months it neck-to-neck with sterling as the strongest G10 currency, up about 7.75% against the dollar and about 4% against the euro.It has strong macro-economic fundamentals. The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP was reported in late July at 3.7% (year-over-year) after a 3% reading in Q1. With the July PMI near record levels, the positive momentum has carried into the start of Q3.

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