A Summation of Bleak Global Economic Evidence

Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

We're expecting HSBC Flash PMI for China at 9:45 p.m. ET.

Europe's double dipping economy may be continuing to implode, but at least confidence abounds. And while the conifidence game was the purvey of career politicians and ex-Goldman central bankers in January, it has now shifted to Europe's equivalent of the reflexive UMichigan consumer confidence, after Germany's ZEW investor confidence soared to 48.2 vs expectations of a modest 35.0 print, leaving January's 31.5 print in the dust, and the highest since April 2010. And all of the surge was based on the hope, with none attributed to reality, or current conditions.

By James Picerno: Tomorrow's report on industrial production for April is projected to post a 0.2% gain, based on The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted). The expected increase represents a modest slowdown vs. March’s 0.4% rise. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection for April contrasts with expectations for a drop in industrial production via consensus forecasts from economists.

By James Picerno: Today’s report on industrial production for February deals another blow to analysts who insist that the U.S. economy is in imminent danger of slipping into a recession or (even more dubious) that the business cycle has already slipped off the edge. Indeed, industrial output last month accelerated, rising 0.7% in February — the best monthly gain since November.

By James Picerno: Tomorrow's report on industrial production (08:30am eastern) for December is projected to post a modest 0.1% gain, according to The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. That's a sluggish pace compared with November's strong 1.1% increase. Economists generally anticipate a 0.2% rise for December's industrial production, based on consensus forecasts.Here's how the numbers stack up, followed by brief definitions for the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator's projections:

By Tom Lydon: A preliminary purchasing managers index reveals that China, the world’s second-largest economy, could be slowing down, weighing on exchange traded funds that track Chinese stocks.

Ralph Shell submits: The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the Empire State Manufacturing Index both project better times ahead. However, a different picture was presented by the m/m US industrial projection index: down 0.1%, less than the +0.6% anticipated, and the new unemployment claims, which were surprisingly higher, 484K versus and an expected 439K.