Spending & Income A Mixed Bag

By James Picerno: Because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, the government released three major economic reports today: income & spending, initial jobless claims, and new orders for durable goods. Overall, the numbers show an economy that continues to struggle. There's just enough growth in the latest data points to keep the debate open about what happens next, but the macro trend still looks precarious no matter how you spin the numbers.

GENEVA (Reuters) - Global air freight traffic rose 4.5 percent in January, driven by growth in Asia and the Middle East in an encouraging start to the year although it remains well below levels seen two years ago, IATA said on Monday.

GENEVA (Reuters) - Global air freight traffic rose 4.5 percent in January, driven by growth in Asia and the Middle East in an encouraging start to the year although it remains well below levels seen two years ago, IATA said on Monday. "The air freight business is showing some encouraging signs. But it's too early to be overly optimistic," said Tony Tyler, Chief Executive of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Freight traffic rebounded from December when it fell 0.5 percent from a year earlier. ...

Listening to talking heads and certainly to various retail associations, US consumer spending in December was lackluster driven by such traditional scapegoats as "lack of confidence ahead of the Fiscal Cliff", lack of clarity on taxation, fears about what the market may do, etc. And while retailers certainly did report a very mixed sales report for both November and December, it certainly was not due to lack of spending, at least not according to Gallup.

When I lived in a studio apartment with no closets after college, I got really good at finding inventive ways to stash unsightly stuff like drain cleaner and dirty laundry out of sight. Maybe I should have looked to banks for inspiration. A financial trade publication recently conducted a case study of a direct-mail marketing brochure that included a “coupon” offering new account holders a $150 sign-up bonus. It says: “Probably the best feature of the entire mail piece and the factor that makes the coupon ideal: it covers up all the disclaimer copy.

In case you thought that you had grown up enough that you don't have to be treated like a three-year old anymore, we have depressing news for you: Your government thinks you haven't.

James Picerno submits: Disposable personal income (DPI) slipped last month while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. The mixed profile for September isn’t surprising these days, although it does offer one more piece of statistical evidence for keeping optimism in check about the near-term prospects for economic growth.

The Pragmatic Capitalist submits: Personal income and spending data was a bit mixed this morning. Personal incomes rose just 0.1% month over month versus expectations of 0.4%. Spending came in better than expected at 0.5%, but was largely due to sales of gasoline. The price index was flat month over month.