Yields rose again Friday on Spanish bonds following a warning from the country's economy minister that the future of the euro will be determined in the next few weeks and will depend on the stability of Spain and Italy.
It's a love-fest in Asia futures once again, but will it hold on Friday or through the weekend?
One thing's for sure, sentiment was so sour about this 19th summit, that any bit of good news stood a decent chance of temporarily igniting the market.
You can actually credit German chancellor Angela Merkel for that sour sentiment because she repeatedly stated Germany would not give in. The latest reports suggest Germany did blink, but not enough to please Italy, Spain, and France.
The selloff on Spanish and Italian bonds continued today with yields in Spain hitting euro-era record highs.
On the deficit side of matters, I do not believe Spain will meet its budget-deficit targets, and neither does Fitch.
Fitch Managing Director Ed Parker said Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will miss budget-deficit targets this year “by a substantial margin.” according to a Bloomberg report.
Just over two years ago I warned that Spain posed a significant threat to the EU area economies. This was a very popular stance, and since I'm more of a medium to long term strategist and Spain didn't experience any immediate pain, my stance was considered even more morose. Well, luckily, I supplied ample research to paying subscribers who were well prepared for what is now evidently coming down the pike.
The accusations of corruption against senior Popular Party officials, including Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy would not have necessarily been market move. The accusations raise more questions than they answer. However, Rajoy's denial may have deterred Asian traders early Monday, but European investors were more skeptical.
Yields on 30-year and 5-year bonds in Spain hit a euro-era record on Friday as the Valencia region of Spain filed for financial assistance.
Bloomberg reports Spain Bonds Slide as Valencia Aid Request Deepens Crisis
The ECB stepped into the fray once again today but the the results of the Spanish debt auction today speak for themselves. The rate on 10-year bonds is close to touching the 7% mark.
The BBC reports on the "Dreadful Result"
The Spanish government sold 3.56bn euros (£3.04bn; $4.79bn) worth of bonds out of a maximum target of 4bn euros.
The auction attracted bids worth 1.5 times the securities offered. The so-called bid-to-cover ratio was down from 1.8 in October.
An official for the Bank of Italy says Bonds Bids, Offers Show Government Bond Market "Frozen".
Spreads between bid and ask government bond prices indicate markets are “frozen,” said Franco Passacantando, Bank of Italy’s Managing Director for Central Banking, Markets and Payment System in Milan today.
From Goldman's Fracnesco Garzarelli: Trade Update: Closing our 2013 Top Trade recommendation to go Long 5-year Spanish Government Bonds, for a potential 5.5% total period return We recommend closing long positions in 5-year Spanish bonds, one of our Top Trade recommendations for 2013. Since inception on 6 December, the position would have returned 5.5%.