BERLIN (Reuters) - Back in May, as the euro zone veered deeper into crisis, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman penned one of his gloomiest columns about the single currency, a piece in the New York Times entitled "Apocalypse Fairly Soon".
By Peter Boone and Simon Johnson
In every economic crisis there comes a moment of clarity. In Europe soon, millions of people will wake up to realize that the euro-as-we-know-it is gone. Economic chaos awaits them.
The standoff between Greece and its creditors on how to proceed on its bailout program risks triggering a simultaneous cash and credit crunch, which could drive the country out of the euro area.
Here’s how a worst-case scenario could unfold:
The Greek stock market is down over 36% year to date; the risk of global contagion in the event of a Greek exit is very real. Ordinarily such a crisis would require a massive coordinated effort from global stakeholders, perhaps directed by the IMF or some other pan-national financial body. But not in this case; the rhetoric is nationally-based and biased without unity of purpose across finance ministries.
This is the second post on today's release by the IMF of the 2013 Financial System Stability Assessment Report for European Union report.The first post - summarising top-line conclusion from the Technical Note on Progress with Bank Restructuring and Resolution in Europe is available here:
Dr. Doom got it wrong.
The parade of economists and investors led by Nouriel Roubini predicting Greece’s ejection by now from the eurozone failed to appreciate the resolve of European policy makers to protect their union and the amount of pain Greeks are willing to stomach.
By Russ Koesterich: Now that a second Greek bailout deal has been reached, I’m getting lots of questions from investors about my outlook for the euro currency. The questions run the gamut from whether Greece will remain in the euro bloc to how the euro will likely perform going forward.