Retail Sales: The 'Real' Story

Doug Short submits: The Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that retail sales increased 0.1% in June. The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data. I've highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes.

By Doug Short: The Retail Sales Report released yesterday morning shows that retail sales in October were up 0.5% month-over-month (but the Census Bureau notes that the statistical confidence range is ±0.5%). The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data. I've highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes.

By Doug Short: The Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that retail sales in November were up 0.2% month-over-month (but the Census Bureau notes that the statistical confidence range is ±0.5%). That was well below the Briefing.com consensus forecast of 0.6%. The more positive year-over-year change was 6.7%. The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data.

Doug Short submits: The Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that retail sales declined 0.2% in May. The chart below shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data. I've highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes. The tech crash that began in the spring of 2000 had relatively little impact on consumption. The financial crisis of 2008 has had a major impact.

By Doug Short: The Advance Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that sales in November came in at 0.3% month-over-month. Today's number is below the Briefing.com consensus forecast of 0.4%. The year-over-year change is 3.7%. The latest overall sales number erases most of the October decline. Now let's dig a bit deeper into the "real" data, adjusted for inflation and against the backdrop of our growing population.

By Doug Short: The Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that retail sales in February were up 1.1% month-over-month from an upwardly revised 0.6% in January. (The Census Bureau notes that the statistical confidence range is ±0.5%.) Today's number is fractionally above the Briefing.com consensus forecast of 1.0% but well below Briefing.com's own optimistic call for 1.8%. The year-over-year change is 6.5%.

By Doug Short: By Doug Short

By Doug Short: The Advance Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that sales in December came in at 0.5% month-over-month. Today's number is well above the Briefing.com consensus forecast of 0.2%. The year-over-year change is 4.7%. The latest overall sales number undercuts recent rumors of soft holiday season sales.