Relief at an agreement will give way to alarm

Lawrence Summers

In a Daily Ticker Interview with Henry Blodget, economist Gary Shilling makes the case the US is already in recession.

By Dwaine van Vuuren:The Global Economy is on the brink of a recession with 58% of 29 OECD countries experiencing business cycle contractions. The chart below shows OECD defined global contractions (grey shaded areas) together with the percentage of 29 OECD member countries experiencing slowdowns. It is evident that whenever 50% or more of countries enter contraction (red dotted line) that the odds of global recession are very high. (Click to enlarge)

By James Picerno: Will the threat come from within or without? Or are we set to be a two-time loser? Perhaps the more pressing question is whether it’ll come at all?

Slowly but surely global growth estimates have been ratcheted down. Courtesy of Google Translate from an Italian news site, please consider IMF estimates two years of recession for Italy

Article written by Prieur du Plessis, editor of the Investment Postcards from Cape Town blog.I keep a close eye on a number of indicators to alert me to the possibility of the U.S. economy falling back into recession. From the PMIs to the yield spread to an economic report diffusion index all seem to indicate that the economy is on safe ground, for the moment.