The Real Danger of Medical Referrals: Physician Overconfidence + Lack of Quality Assessment
We may have a sense of how knowledgeable other doctors may seem in conversation, we know where they trained and who they trained with, and we can figure out pretty quickly if their patients tend to like them or not; but do we know the quality of the care they ultimately are providing? Generally, the answer is no - and to believe otherwise suggests profound physician overconfidence, of exactly the sort described by Kahneman in so many other domains.
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