Q4:2012 U.S. GDP Nowcast Update

By James Picerno: US GDP is projected to increase by 3.1% in 2013's first quarter, according to the latest update of The Capital Spectator's average econometric nowcast. That's up sharply from the previous 2.0% nowcast for Q1, published on February 26. (GDP percentage changes are quoted as real seasonally adjusted annual rates.)

By James Picerno: US GDP is expected to increase 3.2%, according to The Capital Spectator's average econometric nowcast. That's unchanged from the previous nowcast, published on April 8. (GDP percentage changes are quoted as real seasonally adjusted annual rates.)

By James Picerno: First-quarter US GDP is expected to increase 3.2%, according to the latest update of The Capital Spectator's average econometric nowcast. That's virtually unchanged from the previous 3.1% nowcast, published on March 19. (GDP percentage changes are quoted as real seasonally adjusted annual rates.)

By James Picerno: Gross domestic product for the U.S. in the fourth quarter is on track to rise by 1.5%, according to the average of The Capital Spectator's five econometric "nowcasts". That's up slightly from the 1.2% average in our previous update on November 23.

By James Picerno: Second-quarter US GDP is expected to increase 2.9% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to the The Capital Spectator’s average econometric nowcast. This is an initial estimate that uses limited Q2 data and so the projection is a preliminary review that will be revised several times as new economic data arrives.

By James Picerno: Will the rebuilding in the Northeast in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's destruction juice the economy's modest growth trend? It's too early to know, but the possibility can't be dismissed. For now, it's time to establish a baseline of nowcasts for Q4:2012 GDP. The official estimate is scheduled for release via the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late-February, and so there's a long road ahead in terms of economic updates.

The BEA released today its estimate of 2013 first-quarter real GDP, which grew at a 2.5% annual rate from the previous quarter. That's below the average 3.1% growth rate since World War II, but better than the 2.1% average since the recovery began in 2009:Q3.

By James Picerno: U.S. economic growth rebounded in the first quarter after stalling in last year’s final three months, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports in today's initial GDP estimate. But while Q1’s 2.5% advance (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) is a substantial improvement over last year’s slim 0.4% rise in Q4, today’s number is still well below expectations.