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    Pump Prices Headed to $3.62 per Gallon

    Fri, 05/20/2011 - 13:38 EDT - Seeking Alpha
    • BNO
    • Kenneth D. Worth
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    Kenneth D. Worth submits:National average gasoline prices this week are at $3.96. Perhaps you have noticed the recent drop of a few cents. Yet the June Nymex futures contract for RBOB unleaded has fallen 50 cents from $3.40 to $2.90 a gallon. Because the Nymex contract is physically deliverable, there is typically a very close correlation between the price at the pump and the Nymex closing price.The difference between average monthly pump prices to the Nymex wholesale month close forms a bell shaped curve. In most months the retail pump price is between 65 and 80 cents above the Nymex close. [Click to enlarge]With June unleaded trading around $2.90, that would put summer prices at the pump at a sigh-inducing $3.62 a gallon. Pump prices any higher than 85 cents above the Nymex contract or $3.75 a gallon has a probability of roughly 1 in 20. This would, based on theComplete Story »

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