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    Portfolio Risk: Is It Worth Taking a Chance?

    Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:34 EDT - Seeking Alpha
    • BIV
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    • Lowell Herr
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    Lowell Herr submits: Knowing the return of a portfolio is highly correlated with portfolio uncertainty, is it better to go with an aggressive portfolio or is it preferable to keep the volatility down by tilting toward a conservative asset allocation? The results may be surprising. For this test I selected an array of ETFs that would cover domestic equities, REITs, developed international markets, emerging markets, and various bond options for the conservative portfolio. Both portfolios are tilted toward the value side of the investing spectrum, so both the aggressive and conservative portfolios have a bent toward a moderate investing style. The data table below shows the asset allocation plan for each. No bonds are in the aggressive portfolio. A much higher percentage is allocated to small cap stocks in the form of the IWM and VBR ETFs. Using the Quantext Portfolio Planner software developed by Geoff Considine, certain assumptions are required for theComplete Story »

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    • Evaluating ETFs For Buy, Hold Or Sell

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      Lowell Herr submits: Over a month ago I wrote an article on the "Holy Grail" portfolio that can be found at this site. The following combination of 11 ETFs and four individual stocks meet several requirements when using the Quantext Portfolio Planner analysis tool developed by Geoff Considine.

    • ETF Portfolio Probability Projections

      Lowell Herr submits: Extrapolating any kind of data is dicey at best. Projecting the direction of the stock market and ETF-oriented portfolios is no different. Given that caution, I've used Geoff Considine's Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) the last few years as a guide in the construction of portfolios. This software makes future projections. Are the projections accurate? While no program or system is expected to be precise, what are the probabilities of tilting decisions in the right direction?

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