Opinion: The Human Disaster of Unemployment

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

Recession Numbers Second Consecutive Month Yesterday I was asked if the services ISM changed my view about the US being in recession. I responded that I wanted to see today's job report first. Well I have seen it and the report is nothing short of a certified disaster. Yes, Virginia, based on the household survey, and manufacturing reports, the regional Fed surveys the US is in recession.

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog,

FRIDAY'S jobs report touched off a round of hand-wringing over the possibility of permanent damage to America's labour force as a result of years of labour-market weakness. Labour-force participation fell in April; there has been virtually no recovery in the employment-population ratio over the past three years, despite steady (though disappointingly slow) employment growth.

Initial Reaction The establishment report of +146,000 jobs was about what most expected. However, beneath the surface, this report looks grim. The household survey shows a loss of 122,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dropped by .2% because the labor force fell by 350,000 and those "not in the labor force" rose by a whopping 542,000. Thus, we are back to the previous 2012 pattern of witnessing unemployment rate drop largely because of a massive increase of those "not" in the labor force.

from Dean Baker and Kevin Hassett In 2007, before the Great Recession, people who were looking for work for more than six months — the definition of long-term unemployment — accounted for just 0.8 percent of the labor force. The recession has radically changed this picture. In 2010, the long-term unemployed accounted for 4.2 percent [...]

The U.S. unemployment rate will remain elevated for years, experts say, a grim prospect for Americans who have exhausted their benefits.The U.S. economy will eventually rebound from the Great Recession.