LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC trimmed its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2013 due to a slowing global economy and said it expected a trend for ample supply to persist next year, even after a drop in supplies in September.
LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC trimmed its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2013 due to a slowing global economy and said it expected a trend for ample supply to persist next year, even after a drop in supplies in September. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, trimmed its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2013 by 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 780,000 bpd and said the risk remained skewed to the downside. ...
Economics professor Lutz Killian, University of Michigan, has a research paper titled "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?" co-authored with Bassam Fattouh and Lavan Mahadeva, here's the abstract (emphasis added):
OPEC could lose almost 8% of its oil market share in the next five years as the shale energy boom and other competing sources boost rival supply, offering the exporter group little benefit from rising world demand.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been slower than some to acknowledge the impact that hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is having on supply. Earlier this year, it decided to carry out its own research into shale oil.
OPEC further lowered the forecast demand for its crude in the fourth quarter and 2014, and said its production remained higher than next year’s global requirement despite a plunge in Iraqi and Libyan output.
The outlook could point to a challenging 2014 for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Rising rival output will make it harder for it to keep its own production at high rates without risking a drop in prices below its preferred level of $100 a barrel.
By Craig Pirrong: To get back to the substance of the speculation debate, let me reprise something I've discussed for years to illustrate the vapidity of many of the arguments about speculation. I've been making this point for more than 6 years: it was a focus of a presentation I made at a conference in Champuloc, Italy in January 2008.
Demand for OPEC crude could fall by a million barrels per day within five years, as North American tight oil chips away at the group’s influence on global markets.
OPEC, which has long dismissed North America’s tight oil production surge as marginal, said in its annual report Thursday that shale’s impact could be “significant,” and the combination of production from North America and other rivals would reduce demand for OPEC crude to 29.2 million barrels per day in 2018, compared to 30.3 million bpd today.