LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC output in May has hit its highest since 2008 as Saudi Arabia maintained high production rates despite a drop in prices and Iranian shipments did not fall substantially further ahead of an EU embargo, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday.
LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC output in May has hit its highest since 2008 as Saudi Arabia maintained high production rates despite a drop in prices and Iranian shipments did not fall substantially further ahead of an EU embargo, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday. Supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 31.80 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 31.75 million bpd in April, the survey of sources at oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts found. ...
LONDON/NEW YORK — Saudi Arabia is quietly telling the oil market it would be comfortable with much lower oil prices for an extended period, a sharp shift in policy that may be aimed at slowing the expansion of rival producers including those in the U.S. shale patch.
Some OPEC members including Venezuela are clamoring for production cuts to push oil prices back up above US$100 a barrel.
As Barclays recently noted, there is a complete decoupling between futures and physical markets for crude oil and nowhere is that more evident than the high volume spike in crude that just happened after Saudi Arabia boosted crude production for a second month to the highest level in at least three decades, helping to raise OPEC output as U.S. growth showed signs of slowing. As Bloomberg reports,
OPEC’s likely decision to leave quotas unchanged next week belies the growing prospect of having to make the deepest oil-production cuts since 2009 as a global supply surge threatens to weaken prices.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may need to lower output by 1 million barrels a day, or 3%, in the first half of next year, according to Societe Generale SA. Brent crude may drop 20% by June if the group doesn’t reduce the amount it pumps, the Centre for Global Energy Studies said.
OPEC further lowered the forecast demand for its crude in the fourth quarter and 2014, and said its production remained higher than next year’s global requirement despite a plunge in Iraqi and Libyan output.
The outlook could point to a challenging 2014 for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Rising rival output will make it harder for it to keep its own production at high rates without risking a drop in prices below its preferred level of $100 a barrel.
OPEC’s influence on oil prices is very visible in the short run, but it is less certain that its pricing power can be maintained in the long term, according to a thoughtful review published by Bassam Fattouh and Lavan Mahadeva of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Fattouh and Mahadeva examine how the cartel’s strategy and power over oil prices have varied over time depending on market conditions and the interaction among OPEC members (“OPEC: What Difference Has it Made?” Jan 2013).
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia told OPEC it reduced its oil output in August by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), a cutback coinciding with a drop in oil prices towards the kingdom’s preferred level of $100 a barrel.
In a monthly report issued on Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut its forecasts for demand for OPEC crude this year and next, pointing to a supply surplus of more than 1 million bpd in 2015 if OPEC keeps output at current levels.
Saudi Arabia has been publicly skeptical of North America’s energy surge, but there are now clear signs that its economy is directly hit by developments in Fort McMurray, Eagle Ford and the Bakken.
The massive oil sector of the Middle East’s largest economy shrank 6.3% in the first quarter of the year, its lowest reading since quarterly data was made available in 2010. Brent crude prices contracted 7% during the period while production was down nearly 8%.
LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC oil output has risen slightly in October as extra supplies from Iraq, Angola and Libya have offset disruptions in Nigeria and a further decline in Iran to its lowest in two decades, a Reuters survey found on Wednesday. The survey indicates Iraq's expansion in export capacity and continued high output from top exporter Saudi Arabia are helping to compensate for reduced supply from Iran, whose output has fallen sharply due to Western sanctions. Supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 31. ...