Oil prices had a good run. But the brief bump we saw in prices several weeks ago is over. Prices have now returned to levels not seen in more than a year. Yesterday London-traded Brent crude futures fell more than 2% yesterday to $102, about where we were on July 1, 2013.
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank, has a interesting article today on War & Markets I present below as a guest post.Steen says ...Prepare for less growth, less certainty and more geopolitical riskCrude oil price is simplest proxy for geopolitical riskWars reflect a world where growth is low and energy expensive “There are causes worth dying for, but none worth killing for” – Albert Camus
You can be forgiven for thinking that the world is a pretty terrible place right now, exclaims JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest. With 11.7% of the world's population currently at war (and a considerably larger percentage seemingly on the verge), it seemed an appropriate time to summarize the main geopolitical risk points in the world. Deutsche Bank warns Geopolitical Risks Remain High
What is offsetting the drop in crude prices following Obama's latest embarrassing backtracking from his "blow things up first, ask Congress later" peace track? According to some, it is this note from Goldman which suggests oil price pressure from an improving geopolitical picture will be offset by rising backwardation. Rising backwardation offsets a negative price view
Enron Corp.’s 2001 collapse revealed the extent of its manipulation of spot gas prices. Twelve years later, European Union regulators may discover energy traders never learned the lessons of the scandal.
BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Platts were visited by EU inspectors last week over allegations they “colluded in reporting distorted prices” to manipulate the published prices of oil and biofuel products, the European Commission in Brussels said after the raids.
The current maelstrom of production cutbacks and staff repatriation by foreign oil producers in Libya makes it a little harder to be optimistic on the outlook for the oil business in the country right now. However there is one factor that may play a positive role in ensuring a positive outcome for the industry once the dust has settled and that is the impressive geopolitical diversityof participation in Libyan oil and gas.