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    Niall Ferguson on Investing Given the Possible U.S. Debt Crisis

    Tue, 08/24/2010 - 04:16 EDT - Seeking Alpha
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    • Greg Speicher
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    Greg Speicher submits: On Friday, August 20, 2010, I posted a link on my blog to a lecture given by Niall Ferguson, a Harvard historian who also teaches at the Harvard Business School, entitled “Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspectives on Current Predicaments”. I chose to write about the lecture because during the Q&A, a questioner asked Ferguson what, “History tells us about how one invests their money in this kind of situation?” Before I get to Ferguson’s answer, I want to offer some brief perspective. Those who follow value investing know that value investors are famous for not spending a lot of time on macroeconomics. The general view among value investors – at least going into the current crisis – is that the performance of the economy cannot be predicted with a useful level of certainty. Ample evidence exists to bolster this claim. Investing is, after all, about predicting what will happen in the future. It makes sense to limit oneself to those few areas where it can actually be done.Complete Story »

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