New Democracy a Likely Winner But May Be Unable to Form Coalition; Syriza Has Coalition Chances If New Democracy Fails
New Democracy is in lead with about a third of the vote counted. However, it now appears New Democracy has won, but it's also possible that no coalition with New Democracy will form. It all depends on Pasok , which has stated unwillingness to enter into a coalition with New Democracy.
7.53pm: Horsetrading between the parties has begun:
Pasok has been publicly stating that it will not join any coalition without Syriza.
Pro-EU New Democracy on the other hand has been talking on Sky News about a "grand coalition".
Panos Kammenos, leader of the Independent Greeks, a right-wing party that could have been in line to ally with New Democracy has told the press that the party is keen to support a government that will condemn the bailout agreements – that would in effect rule out a deal with New Democracy.
7.36pm: The official projection figures for the election have now been announced by Greece's interior ministry. Greek pollster, Marika Lambrou, said this:
There will be seven parties in the next parliament, as was the case on 6 May. There will be no upset in the order of the parties but there has been a "considerable increase" in the number of votes for the two leading parties.
New Democracy will receive 29.53% of the vote, equivalent to 128 seats.
Syriza will receive 27.12% – 72 seats.
Pasok will receive 12.2% – 23 seats.
Independent Greeks will receive 7.56% – 20 seats.
Golden Dawn will receive 6.95% – 18 seats.
Democratic Left will receive 6.23% – 17 seats.
Greek Communist Party will receive 4.47% – 12 seats.
Unless Pasok is willing to enter into a coalition government, there is no coalition with New Democracy possible.
Then it would be up to Syriza to form a coalition. Mentally subtract 50 seats from New Democracy and add then to Syriza, giving Syriza 122 seats. A coalition with Pasok and either the Independent Greeks or the Democratic Left would be possible, if not likely.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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