More On CPI (Not To Be Confused With Moron CPI)
By The Inflation Trader: I posted Tuesday some thoughts that I tweeted right after the CPI figures were released Tuesday morning, and added a few ancillary thoughts as well. I figured that may be all that I would write, since CPI is clearly the most important release of the day and because I am hard at work on our Quarterly Inflation Outlook piece.But then I saw a number of headlines such as this:
- "Retail Sales Edge Up, Inflation Flat as Energy Prices Fall"
- "Tame Inflation, Strong Factory Data Lift Futures"
…and I realized I had to write Tuesday.It isn't true that core CPI was "as-expected" or that inflation was "flat." Of the 78 economists polled by Bloomberg about the monthly change in core CPI, one called for 0.0%, eight expected +0.1%, and the balance expected +0.2%. The average works out to be 0.184%. This is consistent with poll results on the questionComplete Story »