Monday's Market: In A New York Instant, Everything Can Change

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:06 EDT - Seeking Alpha

By David Fry (ETF Digest): The global contraction has reached U.S. markets. The week in U.S. markets was going to be difficult and challenging with employment and ISM data dominating combined with earnings. Overall, things were okay given the heavy dose of data until Thursday afternoon when investors began to bail from markets. The ADP Employment report Wednesday wasn't inspiring but the ISM Mfg Index was better than expected. Jobless Claims Thursday were also better than expected but the ISM Services data was a big miss leading to selling. Eurozone unemployment Thursday was reported at 10.9% and Friday the eurozone reported the PMI was 46.9 vs 49.2 confirming a likely recession. Friday's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report showed only 115K new jobs with over 500K workers leaving the employment rolls. Further, it's reported that over 700K people will lose their unemployment benefits in June. The previously bullish increase in stocks came undone in a New YorkComplete Story »

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Key Events In The Coming Holiday-Shortened, Very Busy Week
The holiday shortened and very busy week includes the following highlights: [on Monday] US Chicago PMI (expect a small move down to a still-strong level of 62), Euro area flash harmonized CPI (expect a slight fall to 0.40% yoy), UK GFK Consumer Confidence, Japan IP; [on Tuesday] US ISM Manufacturing (expect 56), Construction Spending, and Vehicle Sales, in addition to a host of PMI Manufacturing in various countries, Australia MP Decision (expect on hold with neutral bias), and South Korea exports (expect a modest 1%, vs.
Looking Ahead: Business Confidence Indexes and Labor Market Report
Matteo Radaelli submits: Our estimates on U.S. economic data due for release during the next week:Chicago PMI (Monday, Jan. 31), ISM manufacturing index (Tuesday, Feb. 2) – Both the Chicago PMI and the ISM manufacturing index rose in December – to 66.8 and 57 respectively – confirming that the short term outlook for the industrial sector remains positive.
What Wall Street Expects Of Today's Jobs Number
Ahead of today's latest "good news is great news, bad news is better" NFP release, here is what Wall Street banks expect will be reported in just over half an hour's time: HSBC 175K Goldman Sachs 175K Citigroup 185K JP Morgan 200K Deutsche Bank 200K Bank of America 225K Barclays 225K UBS 230K More:
Data Awaken Bulls
By David Fry (ETF Digest): Chinese manufacturing data improved in October. Meanwhile, Japan is in full QE mode. Europe liked the blizzard of U.S. data, thinking it might spill across the pond. The IMF said a Greek deal is on the horizon ("Lost Horizons"?). U.S.
Here's Your Ultimate Preview For Tomorrow's Huge Jobs Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is back at it tomorrow, releasing the September jobs report postponed during the government shutdown. Here's a quick tally of what economists are expecting:
Here's Everything We Know About The Jobs Report That Didn't Get Released
Thanks to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish the September U.S. jobs today. But here's a quick tally of the market economists' expectations:
STOCKS GO NOWHERE AHEAD OF THE BIG JOBS REPORT: Here's What You Need To Know (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TSLA)
Stocks barely closed positively ahead of Friday's big jobs report. First, the scoreboard:
Thursday Options Recap
Frederic Ruffy submits: SentimentStocks are trading mixed following a busy day of economic news. Equity markets moved broadly higher across Asia and Europe Thursday, which helped set a positive tone for morning action on Wall Street. Employment data was also in focus after data showed weekly jobless claims falling a better-than-expected 10,000 to 453,000 in the period ended May 22. Economists were looking for a drop of only 5,000.
Global Economic Descent Continues
By David Fry (ETF Digest): We could start by noting Chinese Manufacturing Growth fell to 50.4 vs 53.3 previously. Of course, that's not impressive. The star of the show was the U.S. The nonfarm payroll data (aka unemployment report) laid an egg.
Employment Situation Preview: Fewer Payroll Jobs Added, Grim Overall
Tomorrow the BLS will release the May Employment Situation Summary at 8:30 AM ET. As I noted in the weekly schedule, the consensus forecast for payroll jobs seems too high; Bloomberg is showing the consensus is for an increase of 190,000 payroll jobs in May, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 8.9%.

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Monday's Market: In A New York Instant, Everything Can Change

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