Monday's Market: In A New York Instant, Everything Can Change

Ahead of today's latest "good news is great news, bad news is better" NFP release, here is what Wall Street banks expect will be reported in just over half an hour's time: HSBC 175K Goldman Sachs 175K Citigroup 185K JP Morgan 200K Deutsche Bank 200K Bank of America 225K Barclays 225K UBS 230K More:

By David Fry (ETF Digest): (click to enlarge)

Nothing like a solid dose of schizophrenia to start the week, following Chinese PMI news which showed that once again the Chinese economy was both contracting and expanding at the same time. Sure, one can justify it by saying HSBC looks at smaller companies while the official data tracks larger SMEs but the reality is that just like in the US, so China has learned when all else fails, baffle with BS is the best strategy. As a result the media is attributing he drop in European stocks to the weaker than expected China PMI, while the green prints in US futures are due to...

At least until yesterday's abysmal jobs report, there was - just like last December - a renewed sense of optimism that just because the Fed had gotten surprisingly hawkish in recent weeks (just like it did in November) starting with the FOMC minutes, passing through the speeches of numerous Fed presidents, and culminating with last Friday's Janet Yellen appearance, that the US economy was once again set for a major rebound, leading to a substantial repricing higher in rate hike odds which was also coupled with a boost in risk sentiment.

WASHINGTON — A gauge of planned U.S. business spending rose for a third straight month in June, offering a hopeful sign for a pickup in economic growth in the second half of the year. Other data on Thursday showed first-time applications for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, but the underlying trend pointed to continued job gains.

By David Fry (ETF Digest): Chinese manufacturing data improved in October. Meanwhile, Japan is in full QE mode. Europe liked the blizzard of U.S. data, thinking it might spill across the pond. The IMF said a Greek deal is on the horizon ("Lost Horizons"?). U.S.

By David Fry (ETF Digest): We could start by noting Chinese Manufacturing Growth fell to 50.4 vs 53.3 previously. Of course, that's not impressive. The star of the show was the U.S. The nonfarm payroll data (aka unemployment report) laid an egg.