Monday's Market: In A New York Instant, Everything Can Change

Ahead of today's latest "good news is great news, bad news is better" NFP release, here is what Wall Street banks expect will be reported in just over half an hour's time: HSBC 175K Goldman Sachs 175K Citigroup 185K JP Morgan 200K Deutsche Bank 200K Bank of America 225K Barclays 225K UBS 230K More:

Nothing like a solid dose of schizophrenia to start the week, following Chinese PMI news which showed that once again the Chinese economy was both contracting and expanding at the same time. Sure, one can justify it by saying HSBC looks at smaller companies while the official data tracks larger SMEs but the reality is that just like in the US, so China has learned when all else fails, baffle with BS is the best strategy. As a result the media is attributing he drop in European stocks to the weaker than expected China PMI, while the green prints in US futures are due to...

On Friday morning, The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July jobs at 8:30 am ET. Here are the numbers Wall Street is looking for:

At least until yesterday's abysmal jobs report, there was - just like last December - a renewed sense of optimism that just because the Fed had gotten surprisingly hawkish in recent weeks (just like it did in November) starting with the FOMC minutes, passing through the speeches of numerous Fed presidents, and culminating with last Friday's Janet Yellen appearance, that the US economy was once again set for a major rebound, leading to a substantial repricing higher in rate hike odds which was also coupled with a boost in risk sentiment.

Today's sellside NFP estimate, from top to bottom: Deutsche Bank 225K Goldman Sachs 200K UBS 195K Bank of America 180K Barclays 175K JP Morgan 175K HSBC 165K Citigroup 175K Consensus is 185K, with a low of 87K, high of 225K (LaVorgna), June printing at 195K and May 165K. The Unemployment Rate Consensus is 7.5%, with a low 7.4% (LaVorgna), high 7.7% and June at 7.6%, May 7.5%. Some more thoughts on the imminent print from Ransquawk:

WASHINGTON — The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to moderate job growth despite slowing economic activity. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had expected first-time applications to fall to 345,000 last week.

By David Fry (ETF Digest): We could start by noting Chinese Manufacturing Growth fell to 50.4 vs 53.3 previously. Of course, that's not impressive. The star of the show was the U.S. The nonfarm payroll data (aka unemployment report) laid an egg.