For many unemployed workers, jobs aren't coming back
Sun, 09/05/2010 - 02:00 EDT - LA Times
The U.S. unemployment rate will remain elevated for years, experts say, a grim prospect for Americans who have exhausted their benefits.The U.S. economy will eventually rebound from the Great Recession. Millions of American workers will not.
Here it is, folks: The final jobs report before the 2012 Presidential Election. The Labor Department announced this morning that the U.S. economy added 171,000 jobs in October, and that the unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of one percent to 7.9%, besting the consensus prediction of 125,000 new jobs. And with the announcement, the government’s monthly Employment Situation Report can now revert back to its usual status of being just another data point among many which help paint a picture of the state of the economy.
What the sell-side expects: JP Morgan 75K Goldman Sachs 100K UBS 100K Bank of America 110K HSBC 120K Barclays 125K Citigroup 130K Deutsche Bank 130K What the market expects vis RanSquawk: Today sees the release of the US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate reading for the month of October, during much of which, hundreds of thousands of federal workers were furloughed due to the recent sixteen day government shutdown.
There's some evidence that gainfully employed congressfolk are recoiling from extending unemployment benefits because they've trouble believing that anyone wouldn't be able to find a job after more than a year. To some degree, this reflects a view of the recession that's national rather than regional. In fact, some states, like North Dakota, have very low unemployment, while some areas, like Detroit, have incredibly high unemployment.
This was a bad month for jobs in the USA. Not only did the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report that the number of jobs remained at the same level as last month (125,000 additional jobs are needed for population growth, on average and we have huge losses from the credit crisis recession that have to be gained back) the last 2 months were revised down. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from
a gain of 46,000 to a gain of 20,000, and the July was revised down from gaining 117,000 job to gaining
Erez Davidi submits:
The U.S. consumer is the main driver of the U.S. economy, being responsible for 70 percent of the U.S. GDP. However, don’t expect that the mighty U.S. consumer will be back any time soon—at least not consuming like it used to. There are several reasons for this.
The Worst is yet to Come: Unemployed Americans Should Hunker Down for More Job Losses by Nouriel Roubini
Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.
The Bank of Canada will probably begin raising interest rates in the second half of 2014 to contain inflation as the job market tightens, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Inflation will rise to 1.7% by the end of next year from 0.9% in 2013, the OECD predicted in a report released Wednesday. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 6.7% as the economy nears its potential amid a weaker currency.
Are bad jobs at bad wages better than no jobs at all? Should the US demand third world economies pay "living wages"? If so, and if countries don't oblige, should the US impose tariffs so the US does not lose jobs to such countries.
Moral Outrage Over Free Trade
This is what I think....
Note: Apparently the graph server had a problem this morning. It appears to be working now (all the links were OK). Here is the employment graph gallery. Sorry for the inconvenience. This was a very disappointing report.