Looking Towards British GDP Numbers and the Royal Wedding

Forexyard submits: By Russell Glaser A quiet European trading session has been highlighted by a decline in crude oil prices following the announcement of Osama bin Laden’s death. Spot silver prices rebounded after the commodity sold off after an increase in margin requirement fueled profit taking. This afternoon US markets are open and liquidity should improve as traders eye the release of US manufacturing PMI.

One way to gauge support for the price of oil is to calculate the breakeven price. In other words, what is the dollar amount per barrel that would be required for an oil-producing country to balance its fiscal budget? Several factors go into this calculation such as the location (and quality) of a country’s reserves, and the spending habits of the federal government.

By Forexyard: By Russell Glaser Spot crude oil prices have peaked above the psychological barrier of $100 and have extended gains following the release of stronger than expected industrial production numbers and inflationary data that showed prices in the US declined more than forecast. Crude oil prices have been on a tear since the end of October, rising more than 33%.

Figures signal that downturn will continue i

Following all the glowing retail sales reports for Christmas, the actual numbers reported today show a mere .1% rise. Excluding autos which rose 1.5%, retail sales actually declined. MarketWatch reports U.S. retail sales rise scant 0.1% in December Sales at U.S. retailers increased 0.1% in December, the government said Thursday, in a report that bucked expectations of stronger sales during the holiday period.

Britain's economy shrank 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the third quarter, a slight improvement on the previous official estimate, data revealed on Tuesday.The Office for National Statistics last month estimated that gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the final three months of last year."GDP growth contracted by 0.5 percent in the latest quarter, revised from a fall of 0.6 percent previously published," the ONS said in a statement.

Britain's economy shrank by a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, official data showed on Friday, hit by the impact of harsh wintry weather."Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, revised down from the previously estimated fall of 0.5 percent," the Office for National Statistics said in statement.That marked the largest quarterly drop in GDP -- the total value of goods and services produced in the economy -- output since the second quarter of 2009.

Forexyard submits: This article is not about what traders are actually expecting to happen, only a theoretical speculation regarding a recent observation. Crude oil’s weekly chart scares me. Here’s why: Oil is a commodity which trends in relatively stable patterns. Even when the euro, US dollar, or Australian dollar are acting erratically, crude oil tends to continue moving in what can be called “smooth” trends.