A Look Back At Conventional Wisdom In Forecasts For 2011, Part 2
By Lawrence Weinman:
Equity Predictions For 2011
On the equity side a major prediction was for emerging markets, in particular the BRIC countries of Russia, India, Brazil and China, to perform well. Investors were encouraged to boost their allocations to those countries and to emerging markets generally. This was based on the better growth prospects and fiscal and trade surpluses of these countries. As a consequence there were large flows of money into emerging markets early in the year. No doubt the forecasts and the money flows were chasing past performance. In 2009 VWO emerging markets outperformed the U.S. and Europe. But as with most of the predictions this proved to be terrible advice. Emerging markets performed dismally as can be seen on the chart below, which shows VWO, BRIC, India and China compared to the U.S. and Europe. Not surprisingly the money started flowing out of emergingComplete Story »
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