On The Long-Term Evolution Of The Stock Market Part 1: Working Age Population

John Lounsbury submits:In the previous three articles in this series (click here for part 2) the definitions of recession and depression have been discussed based on the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Analysis) definition of recession and a modified definition of the

How much of the US employment shortfall is due to trend factors? One of the central puzzles following the financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recession has been the sluggish growth in employment during the recovery which began in June 2009, given the growth rate of output (the growth rate of output is understandably low, given our knowledge of recoveries in the wake of balance sheet/financial crises).

Over the weekend, both Professors Barro and Mankiw wrote on investment in the New York Times.

Ivan Kitov submits:The price index of housing has the biggest input into the overall CPI among all major expenditure categories (e.g. food, transportation, etc.) Thus, the evolution of this index might have the largest influence on the rate of price growth in the USA. Two years ago we wrote a paper predicting the long-term behavior of the housing index relative to the overall (headline) CPI.

Josh Barro tweets: As @DeanBaker13 points out, that NYT story on Danish welfare didn't really make the case that Danes aren't working. Here's Dean:

6 months ago I figured we could hope than in late 2009 we would see the beginning of the recovery. I am much less optimistic about the later half of 2009 now. The initial reports for the last quarter of 2008 showed GDP Down 3.8%, the worst since 1982. That has now been updated to an annualized decline of 6.2%. Still the economy actually grew for all of 2008 by just over 1%, something I don’t think most people realize.

I try to find global economic data on manufacturing and manufacturing jobs, but it isn’t easy. This is one of the areas I will be working on with the time I have freed up by moving to Malaysia (and taking a “sabbatical” [it isn't really a sabbatical, I guess, just me studying and working on what I want to instead of what someone pays me to]).

I think that what a lot of people are looking for in the monthly economic numbers is a return to normalcy. Decent GDP growth, decent job creation, that sort of thing. But as the latest forecast out of UCLA's Anderson School says, that's not good enough. To climb out of the hole we're in, we need to grow much faster than would be normal: