Links for 2012-01-18

Doug Short submits: The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declined to 5.3 from last week's 6.4. This is the fourth consecutive week of decline from the 11-month interim high of 7.8 for the week ending on April 15. The Published Record The published ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions and rebounds therefrom. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.

Doug Short submits: The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declined to 6.7 from last week's 7.5. This is the second week of fractional decline from the 11-month interim high of 7.7 for the week ending on April 15. The Published Record

Doug Short submits: By Doug Short The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) increased to 7.7 from a slight downward revision (6.8 to 6.7) for the previous week. This is this highest level since May 14, 2010. The Published Record The published ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions and rebounds therefrom. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.

Doug Short submits: The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has held relatively steady over the past seven weeks. The Growth Index is now at 6.7 based on data through April 1. The average of the past seven weeks is 6.6 with a range of 6.2 to 7.1. The Published Record The published ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions and rebounds therefrom.

Doug Short submits: The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has held steady over the past two weeks. The Growth Index is now at 6.5, based on data through March 25. The Published Record The published ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions and rebounds therefrom.

Doug Short submits: The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) continues its rise. The Growth Index is now at 7.1 based on data through March 11. The Published Record The published ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions and rebounds therefrom. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.[Click all to enlarge]

Kirk Lindstrom submits:The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group - released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. For the week ending September 3, 2010: