Key Market Drivers, Trading Ramifications for the Coming Week: EU Spring Meltdown?

Cliff Wachtel submits: Trend drivers of the prior and coming week, and how to play them: PRIOR WEEK MARCH 7-11 EU DEBT CRISIS FEARS RE-EMERGE This was by far the biggest market mover of the past week, as a steady stream of bad news about the PIIGS sovereign debt and banking crisis battered markets this week. Highlights included:

Cliff Wachtel submits: Here are the likely key market movers for the coming week, and how to profit from them : Fundamental & Technical Drivers Next Week & How To Profit The overall array of bullish vs. bearish forces remains largely the same, so from that perspective expect continued mild rally or pullback. Differences this week include: EU

Cliff Wachtel submits: Am I the only one who finds the similarity between market conditions 12 month ago and today disturbing? In mid-February 2010 we had the same very bullish market sentiment, charts, and bearish fundamentals of the EU sovereign debt and banking crisis. It’s eerie. Bullish Charts, Bullish EU Officials, Bearish Fundamental Facts

Cliff Wachtel submits: Summary 1. EU Debt Crisis-related events 2. Risk asset short term oversold reaction rally- Note technical resistance levels be ready for more downsideComplete Story »

Cliff Wachtel submits: It isn’t often that we see one distinct event that forces a reevaluation of ongoing trends, but the FOMC statement this past Tuesday could prove to be one of them. By issuing a statement that markets interpreted to be a clear indication of a new round of stimulus in the coming months, the Fed has altered the picture in every major asset market for the near term at minimum.

Cliff Wachtel submits: Quick Review of Last Week: Primary market moving events included:

Cliff Wachtel submits: Many key risk assets, including the S&P 500, the EUR/USD, and crude oil are again approaching multi-month resistance levels on more ‘less bad’ news from the USsome positive news from China and Australiaearnings reports that showed overall revenue as well as earnings improvementA new calm about the EU debt crisis as the EU and world agree to take another look on March 16th. Overall summary key events

Cliff Wachtel submits: On April 30th in The Coming Crash: Four Reasons Pro and Con, we examined the array of bullish and bearish forces, and argued that the bearish case was overwhelmingly strong. As the below monthly chart shows (click to enlarge), it was a timely exercise.