Jump to Navigation
Home

Main menu

  • Home
  • Latest Stories
  • Markets Map
  • Trends and Sentiments
  • Leading Topics
  • News Search
  • Comments and Analysis

Secondary menu

  • Latest News
  • Top Rated
  • Most Popular
  • Archive
  • About Us
  • Amazon Video Announces New TV Shows And Movies For May
  • Philip Morris: No Dividend Cut Coming
  • Whiting Petroleum: Likely To Report Positive Earnings In...
  • Cramer Remix: How you should focus on Hasbro
  • Stocks could see more turbulence as 10-year yield inches...
  • Google CEO tells investors not to worry about Europe...
  • Former Brevan Howard strategist stands in local London...
  • Brexit drives UK companies toward M&A abroad
  • The Careerologist: Dress codes are cringey but strangely...
  • The benefits of autism in the office

    Just One Week Later, Atlanta Fed's Q2 GDP Forecast Crumbles From 4.3% to 3.6%

    Tue, 05/09/2017 - 12:36 EDT - Zero Hedge
    • Atlanta Fed
    • Bureau of Labor Statistics
    • Business
    • Census Bureau
    • Economics
    • economy
    • Economy of Canada
    • fixed
    • Gross Domestic Product
    • macroeconomics
    • National Accounts
    • Political debates about the United States federal budget
    • RDF10
    • Real gross domestic product
    • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
    • U.S. Census Bureau

    It's deja vu all over again.
    Four months after the Atlanta Fed started off its Q1 GDP nowcast at 2.5%, then raised it just shy of 3.5% before eventually crashing, and closing the books at 0.2%, slightly below where the BEA reported Q1 GDP, on May 1 the regional Fed released its initial GDP forecast for Q2, and, as we noted last week, it came as no surprise to anyone that the initial estimate was just a tad optimistic at 4.3%, to which we commented that if past is prologue, "expect this number to end roughly 50% lower in three months when the first advance Q1 GDP report is released."
    One week later, we are a third of the way there, because moments ago, the Atlanta Fed did just as expected, and chopped off a whopping 17% from its initial estimate, revising its Q2 GDP estimate from 4.3% as of May 1 (and 4.2% as of May 4) to 3.6%, due to a decline in forecast real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment.

    The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.6 percent on May 9, down from 4.2 percent on May 4. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth declined from 3.0 percent and 6.9 percent to 2.7 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively, after the employment situation release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for April—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—has fallen from 0.76 to 0.32 since the last GDPNow update on May 4. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter growth decreased from 1.11 percentage points to 0.99 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.


    The breakdown by component:

    • PCE contribution est. at 1.85%
    • Nonresidential equipment investment contribution est. at 0.34%
    • Nonresidential intellectual property products investment contribution est. at 0.17%
    • Nonresidential structures investment contribution est. at 0.13%
    • Residential investment contribution est. at 0.23%
    • Government contribution est. at 0.02%
    • Net exports contribution est. at -0.12%
    • Change in inventory investment contribution est. at 0.99%

    Expect many more such cuts in the coming weeks as the Fed realizes that what it thought was "residual seasonality" - also known as "weather" - was actually a tapped out US consumer, who as the Fed disclosed yesterday, now has an aversion to credit cards and as a result demand for credit cards is now running at the lowest level in the past 5 years. Good luck hitting 3%, or even 2% GDP with no consumer spending.

    • Original article
    • Login to post comments
     

    Related

    • After A Disastrous Quarter, Atlanta Fed Now Expects Q2 GDP To Hit 4.3%

      Call it deja vu all over again. Four months after the Atlanta Fed started off its Q1 GDP nowcast at 2.5%, then raised it just shy of 3.5% before eventually closing the books at 0.2%, slightly below where the BEA reported Q1 GDP, moments ago the Atlanta Fed released its initial GDP forecast for Q2, and it will probably not come as a surprise to anyone that it just happens to be a tad optimistic.

    • Atlanta Fed Sees Q1 GDP Soaring to 5.4%

      The first estimate of Q4 GDP may have been a dud, with soaring imports resulting in a disappointing 2.6% annualized print, but that hasn't stopped the Atlanta Fed to unveil its most bullish GDP forecast in years: moments ago, the regional Fed revised its initial Q1 GDP nowcast estimate from 4.2% to a whopping 5.4% following today's strong ISM print.

    • 3rd Quarter GDPNow Estimate a Weak 0.7% Despite Retail Sales Jump

      The Retail Sales Upward Revisions will likely add a couple ticks to second quarter GDP, but overall growth still remains very weak. GDP as Reported1st Quarter: +0.6%2nd Quarter: +2.3% The retail sales revisions may add another 0.2% or so to second quarter, assuming there are no other changes. That's a huge assumption given the history of revisions in nearly every economic number.Third Quarter GDPNow Estimate

    • Atlanta Fed Now Sees Q4 GDP At Blistering 4.5%

      True to form, the Atlanta Fed - which has a habit of overshooting massively at the start of the quarter based on optimistic estimates only to ease sharply lower on its GDP "nowcast" as the "hard" data comes in - has unveiled its latest Q4 GDP estimate , which the regional Fed expects to print at a blistering 4.5%. The number is more than 50% higher the previous Q4 guesstimate of 2.9%.

    • Even The Fed Admits Recession Looms: Q3 GDP Forecast Slashed To Just 0.7%

      Just as we warned earlier - and Goldman subsequently confirmed - the Q2 "stack'em-high" surge in inventories (which has juiced hype hope that America is back, baby!) has consequences.

    • Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP Estimate Tumbles To 2.4% From A High Of 3.8%

      Just over a month ago, The Atlanta Fed surprised economic watchers when in early August it unveiled that its Q3 GDP tracker was predicting that the US economy would grow at a blistering annualized pace of 3.6% (and as high as 3.80%) a rather dramatic rebound from the "deplorable" 0.8% and 1.4% growth rates in Q1 and Q2, respectively.

    • Atlanta Fed Throws In The Towel: Cuts Final Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.2%

      Well that was fast: literally seconds ago we posted JPM's Q1 GDP forecast revision, saying "while we wait to see if the Atlanta Fed will cut its final Q1 GDP estimate ahead of tomorrow's official print to 0% or negative." At precisely the same time as we hit the publish button, the Atlanta Fed came out with its revised forecast and it's a doozy: after starting its Q1 GDP nowcast at 2.5%, rising as high as 3.4%, and plunging recently as low as 0.5%, the Atlanta Fed has "thrown in the towel" on the quarter

    • September Rate Hike Back On Table: Q2 GDP Soars In Revision From 2.3% To 3.7% Driven By Record Inventory Build

      Well, if the Fed is truly data-dependent, September is now squarely back on the table following the first revision of (double seasonally-adjusted) Q2 GDP data which soared from 2.3% to a whopping 3.7%, blowing out the Wall Street consensus estimate of 3.2%, and printing above the highest Wall Street forecast (the 3.6% from JPM).

    • Atlanta Fed's Exuberant Q3 GDP Estimate Tumbles Back To Reality

      Just over a month ago, The Atlanta Fed surprised economic watchers when in early August it unveiled that its Q3 GDP tracker was predicting that the US economy would grow at an annualized pace of 3.6% (and as high as 3.80%) a substantial rebound from the "deplorable" 0.8% and 1.1% growth rates in Q1 and Q2, respectively.

    • Real-Time Q1 GDP Update : 1.2%

      Last week, first Goldman and then JPMorgan cut their GDP forecasts, in the case of the latter by 0.5% to 2.0% from 2.5%. The JPM report cited the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model we first exposed earlier last week.

    Latest

    The Eagles have not yet accepted Trump's invitation to the White House but are 'discussing it'
    The Eagles have not yet accepted Trump's...
    Trump Asked Netanyahu: "Do You Actually Care About Peace?"
    Trump Asked Netanyahu: "Do You Actually Care...

    Markets Map

    Markets Map

    Follow Us

    Follow Us on Facebook, Twitter, Google Plus and RSS LinkedIn Facebook Twitter Google Plus RSS
    S&P 500: 2579.37 0.16% FTSE: 7487.96 -0.07% Nikk.: 22420.08 1.82% DAX: 13465.51 1.75% HSI: 28594.06 1.22% FX: EUR/GBP: 1.1401 USD/EUR: 1.1618 JPY/USD: 114.1510 Commodities: Gold: 1276.1000

    Bullfax.com - Market News & Analysis 2008-2011
    Contact Us | About Us | Terms & Conditions

    Follow Us on Facebook, Twitter, Google Plus and RSS LinkedIn Facebook Twitter Google Plus RSS .

    Secondary menu

    • Latest News
    • Top Rated
    • Most Popular
    • Archive
    • About Us