The median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg is for tomorrow's jobs report to reveal that 197,000 workers were hired to nonfarm payrolls in December. The highest estimate is 250,000 — a forecast shared by Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
All eyes are already on the January jobs report, which will be released this Friday. But Peter D'Antonio at Citi is warning that a slew of "special factors" make this particular employment report difficult to forecast.
According to the consensus estimate, the U.S. added 140,000 nonfarm payrolls in April. This number is derived from a survey of Wall Street economists conducted by Bloomberg. The range of estimates goes as low as 100,000 and as high as 200,000.
The ADP's monthly National Employment Report is published two days before the official BLS non-farm payrolls report. To many, the ADP report has been considered the best preview of private payroll stats from the BLS report.
This is a bit of a bombshell: according to a new study by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the employment-to-population ratio — a widely-touted measure of purported slack in the labor market — is a misleading indicator.
OTTAWA — Stephen Poloz is inheriting an economy that is stumbling but still managing to look respectful compared to many other advanced nations.
Still, Mr. Poloz, who took over from Mark Carney as Bank of Canada governor on Monday, will have plenty to answer for when he appears later this week in front of the House of Commons finance committee.
Canada’s economy created a net 41,700 jobs in July, far more than analysts had expected, Statistics Canada’s revised data indicated on Friday. Full story.
PAUL FERLEY, ASSISTANT CHIEF ECONOMIST AT ROYAL BANK OF CANADA:
“A totally different story here … with the revision, suggesting a totally different picture in terms of the employment conditions in July, the very strong overall increase.”
Tim Duy on the employment situation report:
Mixed Messages in the Employment Report, by Tim Duy: Another first Friday,
another employment report. Is this what our lives are meant to amount to?
Sitting glassy eyed in front of a screen, clutching a cup of coffee like a life
preserver, waiting for the internet to spit up some numbers that are only going
to be changed next month? And to do this day, after day, after day?