The September employment report will be released next Friday, October 3rd, and the consensus is that 200 thousand payroll jobs were added in September and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%.Here are two forecasts:From Merrill Lynch:
Friday's jobs report was a big disappointment. But looking beyond that report, one economist raised serious doubts that the American economy was suddenly falling apart. Tom Porcelli, chief economist for RBC Capital Markets, argues the jobs report seems out of sync with most other economic indicators.
The median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg is for tomorrow's jobs report to reveal that 197,000 workers were hired to nonfarm payrolls in December. The highest estimate is 250,000 — a forecast shared by Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
According to the consensus estimate, the U.S. added 140,000 nonfarm payrolls in April. This number is derived from a survey of Wall Street economists conducted by Bloomberg. The range of estimates goes as low as 100,000 and as high as 200,000.
The major banks predict how many jobs the BLS will reveal were added in September. Here are the numbers: Citigroup 175K HSBC 200K Deutsche Bank 200K JP Morgan 225K Morgan Stanley 230K Goldman Sachs 230K BofAML 235K UBS 250K And here is RanSquawk's summary of the key expectations and notable highlights about the upcoming non-farm payrolls number:
The ADP's monthly National Employment Report is published two days before the official BLS non-farm payrolls report. To many, the ADP report has been considered the best preview of private payroll stats from the BLS report.
All eyes are already on the January jobs report, which will be released this Friday. But Peter D'Antonio at Citi is warning that a slew of "special factors" make this particular employment report difficult to forecast.
This is a bit of a bombshell: according to a new study by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the employment-to-population ratio — a widely-touted measure of purported slack in the labor market — is a misleading indicator.
Payroll processing firm ADP just released its monthly National Employment Report — which estimated that 238,000 workers were added to private-sector payrolls in December — and Treasuries are taking a hit in the wake of the release.