Jobs Data Doesn't Contraindicate Modest Growth

By James Picerno: New jobless claims dropped last week by a sizable 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 351,000. That’s a post-Great Recession low, for the second time. Mid-February also witnessed the 351,000 level and the numbers are knocking on this door again.

By James Picerno: The numbers speak loud and clear in today’s weekly update of new jobless claims. New filings for unemployment benefits dropped a hefty 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000 last week. That’s just what's needed at this juncture to keep cyclical optimism alive and humming.

James Picerno submits: Was that a tipping point for the trend in jobless claims? Today’s update of weekly filings for new unemployment benefits shows a drop to a seasonally-adjusted 368,000 for the week through February 26. Initial claims haven’t been this low since May 2008. Today’s number also marks another milestone since the end of the recession: The first back-to-back weekly readings below 400,000.

James Picerno submits: Today’s weekly update on initial jobless claims suggests that the labor market is finally turning (or will soon turn) for the better. Maybe. For the first time in nearly two years, seasonally adjusted new filings for jobless benefits totaled less than 430,000.

By James Picerno: There's good news and bad news in today's weekly update of initial jobless claims. The good news is that new filings for jobless benefits fell last week, albeit by a slim 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000. That's also the bad news. A more convincing drop--ideally to new post-recession lows--is what's needed to boost confidence.

James Picerno submits: Not good, not good. Initial jobless claims popped higher by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000, the Labor Department reports. Previous week’s claims were also revised up by 6,000 to 420,000. The surge in new claims in April has subsided, but the message seems to be that it's subsided to a relatively elevated level vs. the trend that had been unfolding in this year’s first quarter. The stakes are high.

James Picerno submits: Is the labor market headed for a fresh round of trouble? Today’s weekly jobless claims report provides some new motivation for going over to the dark side on this question. The usual caveat applies, of course: divining the future from any one number in this volatile series can be misleading. Unfortunately, the jump in new filings for unemployment benefits is no longer an isolated data point.

James Picerno submits: Today’s update on weekly jobless claims isn’t very encouraging for expecting a big positive surprise in tomorrow’s news on nonfarm payrolls for July. And that's the charitable interpretation. But judge for yourself: the latest number on new filings for unemployment benefits shows a rise of 19,000 last week, bringing the weekly total to 479,000—the highest since early April.