BEIJING — China surprised markets with a thumping trade performance in January as import growth hit a six-month high, drawing some scepticism about the data but still allaying fears of a deepening economic malaise.
Analysts who had expected the long Lunar New Year holiday to drag on January’s trade warned that the figures may be inflated by fake trade transactions, where traders forge deals to sneak cash into the country past capital controls.
Dave here. Keep in mind that the article Black rightfully calls to task cites analysts presuming that a Summers nomination would lead to demonstrably lower economic growth and less job creation. Julia Coronado of BNP Paribas estimated a 0.5%-0.75% reduction in GDP over two years and between 350,000-500,000 fewer jobs.
OTTAWA — It may not be smooth sailing after all for the Canadian economy.
Many positive outlooks for growth in 2014 have been buoyed by a stronger-than-expected performance in the third-quarter of last year — along with a pickup in the global economy overall — but some analysts are sounding a more pessimistic tone.
“The consensus view that economic growth will accelerate this year is misplaced,” say economists at Capital Economics.
Senate Democrats have presented their official plan to avoid the sequester, unveiling a bill Thursday that would replace the across-the-board budget cuts for 10 months. The bill, called the American Family Economic Protection Act, includes $110 billion in savings, balanced evenly with spending cuts and new revenues.
[4:00 pm ET Sunday] It’s middle of the summer and most days in New York and Toronto the weather is stifling. No matter what time of year, it’s hot money that rules the markets. As capital flooded in on Friday, higher prices made the week because otherwise this one was a loser.
Dylan Matthews is writing Wonkbook while Ezra is in China.
The latest jobs bill is being pared down to cater to centrist members of Congress. Will this stop additional bills in the future? Meanwhile, a study suggests that the federal government will bear almost the entire brunt of Medicaid expansion. And the SEC is proposing a database to track trades.
Welcome to Wonkbook.
J.S. Kim submits: In his first State of the Union speech in 2010, President Barack Obama carefully chose his words in calling for a new jobs bill to stimulate real organic economic growth. Historically, politicians have garnered widespread public support for bills that otherwise would have been despised through the use of deceptive labeling. For example, past US Presidents labeled bills that ultimately weakened pollution regulations as “Clean Air Acts”, and so on.