Jobless Claims Were Unchanged Last Week

By James Picerno: The message in today’s update on initial jobless claims is that the labor market recovery has stalled. The crowd has more or less suspected as much these last several months, but today’s numbers drive home the point. It’s clear from looking at the trend that we’re stuck in an elevated range. It could be worse, of course. New weekly claims could be rising.

By James Picerno: Today’s update on jobless claims should dampen worries a bit over the outlook for the economy. New filings for unemployment dropped a healthy 16,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 339,000. Once again, claims are moving close to the post-recession low of 330,000 reached back in January—a five year low.

By James Picerno: Jobless claims declined last week by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000, which is near a post-recession low. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average for claims broke through the previous floor and touched a new cyclical low last week. The four-week average slipped to 348,750 on a seasonally adjusted basis -- the lowest number in five years.

By James Picerno: Initial jobless claims slipped by 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 387,000. That's enough to put a lid on fears that the economy's falling off a cliff now, today, this minute. But today's update also falls well short of inspiring confidence that stronger, sustained growth will quickly resume. Nonetheless, it's still hard to make a case that a new recession is imminent based on the latest numbers.

WASHINGTON (

By James Picerno: New jobless claims dropped last week by a sizable 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 351,000. That’s a post-Great Recession low, for the second time. Mid-February also witnessed the 351,000 level and the numbers are knocking on this door again.

James Picerno submits: You can’t squeeze blood out of a stone and apparently you’ll grow old waiting for initial jobless claims to fall far enough, fast enough to inspire something more than fleeting confidence about the prospects for job creation. Ok, we're exaggerating, but anyone who's been watching the labor market these last several years understands the sentiment.

James Picerno submits: Thursday’s update on weekly jobless claims delivered a wallop—in the right direction for a change. It may be another head fake, but on its face this morning’s report is the best news in months for this measure of the job market. It’s only one number, of course, and so all the usual caveats apply.