TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy bounced back in the first quarter from a year-end lull, powering ahead of other major industrial nations thanks to rebuilding of the tsunami-battered northeast, solid private spending and some improvement in exports.
Japan's economy bounced back in the first quarter from a year-end lull, powering ahead of other major industrial nations thanks to rebuilding of the tsunami-battered northeast, solid private spending and ...
China's broad stock indices were flip-flopping between gains and losses from the open (although securities firms continued to get monkey-hammered on more tightening by regulators) heading into the avalanche of data that hit at 2100ET. GDP growth - which was estimated at sub-7% based on real-time hard-date - was released/leaked 10mins early - rising 7.3% YoY in Q4 (just beating expectations of a 7.2% rise) but grew only 1.5% QoQ (missing the 1.7% expectation).
Consumer Spending MythIt is widely believed that consumer spending accounts for approximately two-thirds of the economy. A few of us dispute that claim.Reader Gary writes "You had made the comment more than once that manufacturing is really a much larger part of GDP than is frequently quoted. I could not find how you got there, but ZeroHedge has a nice Pie Chart that shows what you have stated."It's Only a Manufacturing Recession
Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com, The common error of confusing growth with progress goes largely unnoticed, though it permeates all macroeconomic analysis. There is no better example of this mistake than the fallacies behind the interpretation of Gross Domestic Product. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services in a given year. As such, it is only an accounting identity reflecting the quantity of money in the economy.
Who would have thought all it takes for Eurozone Q4 GDP to print above expectations, even if by the smallest of possible margins - one which even the Chinese goalseek-o-tron bows its head down to in respect - which at 0.3% Q/Q was above the 0.2% expected and above Q3's 0.2%, was for Europe to admit it has finally succumbed to deflation. Oh, and for the ECB to admit the situation has never been more serious by launching Q€. Oh, and add the "estimated contribution" to GDP from hookers and drugs. Put all that together and on an annualized basis, the European economy grew by 1.4%.
Households face a sharp fall in disposable income when the Bank of England raises interest rates that could derail the recovery if the pace of increases is quicker than anticipated, according to the Telegraph.
The analysis conducted by Scotiabank found a one percentage point rise in interest rates over a year would knock around two percentage points off headline UK growth.
You might expect the international markets to be a bit concerned to hear that Ireland's budget deficit this year will be a record 32% of GDP. But you'd be wrong. Today the interest rate - yield - on Irish government debt went down, and the difference between Ireland's borrowing rate and Germany's also went down, by nearly a quarter of a percentage point.
The implication is that investors are now (slightly) more relaxed about Ireland's fiscal situation than they were yesterday, when its budget deficit for 2010 was 'only' around 11% of GDP. What gives?