It's Only July, But Here's My Apple Q4 Estimate
By Stephen Rosenman:When, asked to comment on future iPad numbers, COO Tim Cook responded, "Well, we don't predict unit sales." Well, I do, and, so far, with a high degree of accuracy. For instance, this quarter, Apple sold 40.9 million iPads, iPhones, iPods and computers. I predicted 39 million, far more accurate than both the analyst and blogger consensus. In fact, my EPS estimate of $7.00 a share beat every one of the professional analysts and all but two of the bloggers posted by Philip Elmer-DeWitt. How did I arrive at my figures? I looked at 2 metrics: devices sold and operating income per device.The first metric is simply the total number of units sold by Apple (AAPL). I don't try to guess how each of Apple's product lines will do. It's just too difficult. Instead, I concentrate on one number: how many devices is Apple selling. I lump iPads, iPhones,Complete Story »
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