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    It's EU Judgment Day: Key Events Plus Essential And Unavoidable Short And Long Term Solutions

    Thu, 12/02/2010 - 06:55 EDT - Seeking Alpha
    • Cliff Wachtel
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    Cliff Wachtel submits: Today could be the day that stabilizes the EU crisis, or greatly exacerbates it. The EU is on the brink once again. Wednesday it was reported here that Citibank Chief Economist Willem Buiter believes Greece, Ireland, and Portugal are beyond the point of recovery, and Spain is nearing that point. Spain, however, is considered too big for current EU/IMF funds to rescue. Italian and Belgian bond rates are also soaring. The Two Decisive Events ECB Press Conference This is potentially the biggest event this week. Markets are hoping for a major announcement of a plan to restore confidence and lower yields on PIIGS bonds, which would effectively halt ongoing contagion fears that Portugal and possibly Spain will soon need EU aid, and thus the current latest chapter in the EU sovereign debt/banking crisis. Investors are hoping for an expanded bond buying program to scare of speculative attacks on PIIGS bonds that threaten to cut off Portugal and Spain from credit markets and force them to seek EU aid. Spain’s funding needs are beyond the means of the current EU/IMF package, yet it is far from certain that it could be expanded in time to prevent a Spanish default that would likely lead to a wave of defaults among the PIIGS. That’s because PIIGS bond yields would rise so high as a result of any single EZ member default that none of the rest would be likely to sell bonds at rates they could afford to repay, meaning a domino-effect wave of defaults among the PIIGS, the big money center EU banks that hold their bonds, and unknown other banks and third parties that would be indirectly effected. We will know if markets are disappointed merely by watching credit default swap (CDS) rates on PIIGS bonds. It that rise continues, then the EU crisis will continue to pressure markets and risks another collapse like we saw this past spring. Events are unfolding faster than they did with Greece because of the spring experience and its anticipated repetition. Spain Bond Auction Complete Story »

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