It Would Have Happened Already, Redux
David Merkel submits: I went to a set of presentations at Towson University recently and heard two panels on the investment outlook — one domestic, one international. What fascinated me was the relative unanimity of opinion. All or almost all agreed that:
- Bonds are overvalued.
- Stocks are slightly undervalued. Large Cap Value is attractive.
- Commodities, especially gold, are a bubble. ETFs are driving that bubble.
- Interest rates will rise soon.
- Avoid emerging markets.
- Inflation is coming.
As I listened to the relative unanimity of opinion, I began to think, "Okay, what can go wrong with this?" If they are all invested to reflect these outcomes, maybe we will see things run more against them before an eventual correction takes place. I think that some of what I heard at Towson University this evening does express the consensus for a number of markets. Now the consensus is not always wrong — in the middleComplete Story »