The Investment Markets: What's Hot and What's Not

Will stocks have a pullback? Eventually sure—but when? This past Friday, May 10, 2013 marked 176 days since a 5%+ pullback in the S&P 500, tying the record for stretches without a pullback in this 50-month-old bull market [Figure 1], so it may be close. Also, in the spring of each of the past three years, a stock market slide of 10–19% began, and the S&P 500 is about 11% above the 200-day moving average, as it was ahead of each of those slides. These indicators suggest the stock market may be due for a pause or a pullback.    

Stocks are falling this afternoon. The S&P 500 just broke through two key price levels to the downside, and technical analysts are expressing some concern. The first level the index has fallen through today is the 50-day moving average, which currently sits at 1543. That means the S&P 500 is now trading below the average price it's traded at over the last 50 days, indicating a recent wave selling and bearish sentiment.

ETF Database submits: Over the past few months, most asset classes have risen on hopes that the global economy would be able to avoid a return to recession thanks to increased growth from emerging markets. Unfortunately, back in the U.S., GDP growth is much harder to come by, as high budget deficits have combined with minimal levels of job creation to create a gloomy investment climate.

Zacks.com submits: By Dirk van Dijk

AAII submits: Fourth-quarter earnings season has officially started, and, on the surface, analysts are projecting strong growth. The consensus estimate for S&P 500 earnings calls for a year-over-year increase of 32%, according to Thomson Reuters.

AAII submits: Fourth-quarter earnings season has officially started, and, on the surface, analysts are projecting strong growth. The consensus estimate for S&P 500 earnings calls for a year-over-year increase of 32%, according to Thomson Reuters.

Alan Brochstein, CFA submits: Monday morning, all seemed well. We were pushing up against levels that seemed to suggest an imminent move higher.

Sumit Roy submits:North American natural gas prices fell over 9% this week, as supply concerns weighed on the commodity. Second quarter earnings announcements from E&P’s indicate that production will accelerate in the back half of this year, which obviously bodes poorly for a commodity that is already oversupplied.