IMF Projects Strong Growth in Poor Countries

I think Scott Sumner needs to master the art of the short blog post because this one really buries the lead. He pulls up a very strange remark that James Bullard apparently made to Neil Irwin:

While Europe’s financial crisis continues India grew GDP by 8.6% in the first 3 months of 2010. China continues to grow quickly as do many emerging countries, including Brazil. India’s Q4 GDP grows at 8.6% y-o-y

Hans Wagner submits: Emerging markets, especially China, Brazil, India, much of Asia and other parts of Latin America will lead the rest of the world in economic growth. As a multi-year trend, this is continuation of one of the best investing themes from 2009. Demand for commodities such as copper and steel will be critical for this growth.

Venezuela could boost its long stagnant oil output considerably in just five to seven years if it offers investors greater certainty over contracts, an executive of Russia’s LUKOIL said. Under president Hugo Chavez, who died on Tuesday after 14 years in power, foreign oil companies in Venezuela, the world’s 11th largest crude exporter, have faced price controls and currency devaluations along with threats of nationalisation.

The consumer is coming back. Manufacturers are seeing the pick-up in spending growth as reason to expand production NEW YORK/LONDON — Manufacturing in China and the United States grew this month at the fastest pace in about two years while data suggesting German growth picked up boosted hopes for a swifter eurozone recovery.

There’s been a long running dispute about whether it will be necessary for the United States to formally threaten sanctions on China unless they revalue their currency. The answer now seems to be “no” as China is conceding the need to allow for more flexibility on exchange rates. The precise details are somewhat unclear, and the Chinese are cautioning the world not to expect rapid appreciation, so there will doubtless continue to be conflicts around this.